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Lok. Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Lokomotiv Stadium, Tashkent
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lok. Tashkent host Nasaf Qarshi in the Super League. This one's hard to separate. Nasaf Qarshi have shipped 1.07 goals a game lately, while Lok. Tashkent have conceded 1.25 and scored 1.43. Head-to-head, Lok. Tashkent have won 1 to Nasaf Qarshi's 3, with 1 draws. They last met on Apr 23, 2026, ending 2:3. xG projections (1.38 - 1.06) back Lok. Tashkent to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lok. Tashkent
20%
Draws
40%
Nasaf Qarshi
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Lok. Tashkent lately — more wins on the board than Nasaf Qarshi.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Lok. Tashkent Clean Sheet 20%
Nasaf Qarshi Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Tashkent Nasaf Qarshi
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 10
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 23, 2026 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Lok. Tashkent
2:3
Nov 1, 2024 Super League
Lok. Tashkent vs Nasaf Qarshi
0:1
Jun 2, 2024 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Lok. Tashkent
3:0
Sep 3, 2022 Uzbekistan Cup
Nasaf Qarshi vs Lok. Tashkent
1:0
Aug 29, 2022 Super League
Nasaf Qarshi vs Lok. Tashkent
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Tashkent 32 / 100
Nasaf Qarshi 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Tashkent Nasaf Qarshi

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nasaf Qarshi Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Lok. Tashkent scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Nasaf Qarshi's defensive record shows goals conceded in 67% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Lok. Tashkent remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Tashkent VS Nasaf Qarshi
1.88 Goals Scored 1.25
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.88
75% Over 1.5 38%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Tashkent

(Home)
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1
Neftchi Fargona
15 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
11 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
3 : 0
Mashal Muborak
04 Sept
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 1
Lok. Tashkent
26 Aug
Lok. Tashkent
4 : 1
Bunyodkor
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Nasaf Qarshi

(Away)
20 Sept
Andijan
1 : 4
Nasaf Qarshi
16 Sept
Al Khalidiyah
0 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
09 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
3 : 0
Bunyodkor
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2
Neftchi Fargona
30 Aug
Navbahor Namangan
1 : 0
Nasaf Qarshi
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 23 16 4 3 52:19 52
2 Pakhtakor 22 14 7 1 39:20 49
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
5 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
6 Nasaf Qarshi 22 9 7 6 33:21 34
7 Buxoro 22 10 4 8 32:29 34
8 Din. Samarkand 22 8 6 8 33:34 30
9 Andijan 22 9 3 10 27:28 30
10 Qizilqum 22 9 2 11 23:30 29
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 22 7 5 10 19:28 26
13 Bunyodkor 22 7 1 14 22:36 22
14 Xorazm Urganch 23 5 7 11 20:34 22
15 Kokand 1912 22 4 8 10 19:30 20
16 Mashal Muborak 22 1 1 20 11:44 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)