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Stadium Background

Lok. Zagreb vs Istra 1961 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lok. Zagreb host Istra 1961 in the HNL. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Istra 1961 have shipped 1.36 goals a game lately, while Lok. Zagreb have conceded 1.33 and scored 1.44. Past meetings favor Lok. Zagreb slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 1, 2026, ending 2:3. Model xG sits at 1.44 vs 2.00, favoring Lok. Zagreb. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Lok. Zagreb
30%
Draws
47%
Istra 1961
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Istra 1961

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Lok. Zagreb carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Istra 1961's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 10%
Istra 1961 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Zagreb Istra 1961
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 8 10
Goals Scored 1.44 1.64
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
2:3
Apr 11, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Istra 1961
2:0
Jan 30, 2026 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
1:1
Oct 25, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Istra 1961
1:2
Aug 9, 2025 HNL
Istra 1961 vs Lok. Zagreb
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Zagreb 26 / 100
Istra 1961 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Zagreb Istra 1961

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Istra 1961 Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.20 goals per match.

Lok. Zagreb scored in 74% of their last 27 games.

Istra 1961's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Lok. Zagreb went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Zagreb VS Istra 1961
1.38 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Zagreb

(Home)
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
06 Sept
Slaven Belupo
2 : 1
Lok. Zagreb
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
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Istra 1961

(Away)
19 Sept
Istra 1961
0 : 1
HNK Gorica
13 Sept
Istra 1961
3 : 2
Rudes
08 Sept
Zagorec Krapina
0 : 5
Istra 1961
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
29 Aug
Istra 1961
2 : 2
Din. Zagreb
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)