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Lok. Zagreb vs Varazdin Prediction & H2H Stats

Croatia Croatia

HNL Stadion Maksimir, Zagreb
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lok. Zagreb host Varazdin in the HNL. This one's hard to separate. Varazdin have shipped 0.9 goals a game lately, while Lok. Zagreb have conceded 1.33 and scored 1.47. Past meetings favor Lok. Zagreb slightly — 2-1-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 27, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.00 xG vs 1.75) point toward Varazdin. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Lok. Zagreb
35%
Draws
41%
Varazdin
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Varazdin

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Varazdin have won more games recently than Lok. Zagreb.
  • Win probability leans Varazdin's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Lok. Zagreb Clean Sheet 12%
Varazdin Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lok. Zagreb Varazdin
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 17
Draws 9 7
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 1.47 1.6
Goals Conceded 1.33 0.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 Club Friendly
Lok. Zagreb vs Varazdin
2:1
May 9, 2026 HNL
Varazdin vs Lok. Zagreb
1:1
Mar 7, 2026 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Varazdin
1:1
Dec 7, 2025 HNL
Varazdin vs Lok. Zagreb
4:2
Sep 20, 2025 HNL
Lok. Zagreb vs Varazdin
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lok. Zagreb 10 / 100
Varazdin 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lok. Zagreb Varazdin

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Varazdin Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lok. Zagreb's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Varazdin's defensive record shows goals conceded in 57% of 30 matches.

Lok. Zagreb has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lok. Zagreb VS Varazdin
1.38 Goals Scored 1.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lok. Zagreb

(Home)
20 Sept
Din. Zagreb
3 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
12 Sept
Lok. Zagreb
1 : 1
Rijeka
09 Sept
Tomislav DA
0 : 2
Lok. Zagreb
06 Sept
Slaven Belupo
2 : 1
Lok. Zagreb
31 Aug
Hajduk Split
2 : 0
Lok. Zagreb
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Varazdin

(Away)
02 Oct
Aluminij
0 : 0
Varazdin
19 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Osijek
14 Sept
HNK Gorica
2 : 2
Varazdin
09 Sept
Zagora
0 : 4
Varazdin
04 Sept
Varazdin
0 : 0
Istra 1961
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Din. Zagreb 7 5 1 1 17:9 16
2 Hajduk Split 8 5 1 2 16:8 16
3 Osijek 8 5 1 2 17:11 16
4 Varazdin 8 4 3 1 13:7 15
5 Rijeka 7 4 2 1 13:7 14
6 Istra 1961 8 2 3 3 14:13 9
7 Lok. Zagreb 8 2 1 5 11:16 7
8 Slaven Belupo 8 2 1 5 7:16 7
9 HNK Gorica 8 1 2 5 5:12 5
10 Rudes 8 1 1 6 10:24 4
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Prva NL 2027/2028 (Main)