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Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo FC

Spain Spain

Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 Estadio Francisco Artés Carrasco, Lorca
Our Tip

Match Events

28'
Ibanez W.
81' Event
Naranjo J.

AI Match Summary

The Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Lorca Deportiva and Xerez Deportivo FC finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lorca Deportiva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Lorca Deportiva
28%
Draws
22%
Xerez Deportivo FC
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Lorca Deportiva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Xerez Deportivo FC haven't matched Lorca Deportiva's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lorca Deportiva's way, sitting at 50%.
  • Regular Segunda RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Lorca Deportiva Clean Sheet 68%
Xerez Deportivo FC Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lorca Deportiva Xerez Deportivo FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 8
Draws 7 10
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 0.5 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.50 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Lorca Deportiva vs Xerez Deportivo FC
1:0
Dec 21, 2025 Segunda RFEF - Group 4
Xerez Deportivo FC vs Lorca Deportiva
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lorca Deportiva Compare

Top Goalscorer Naranjo J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Xerez Deportivo FC Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lorca Deportiva 59 / 100
Xerez Deportivo FC 23 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lorca Deportiva Xerez Deportivo FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LOR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lorca Deportiva scored in 63% of their last 30 games.

Defensive concern: Xerez Deportivo FC conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Xerez Deportivo FC registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 0.50 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Lorca Deportiva VS Xerez Deportivo FC
0.5 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lorca Deportiva

(Home)
03 May
Deportiva Minera
1 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
26 Apr
Lorca Deportiva
2 : 2
Yeclano
19 Apr
Aguilas FC
2 : 0
Lorca Deportiva
12 Apr
Lorca Deportiva
0 : 1
Xerez CD
05 Apr
Almeria B
1 : 1
Lorca Deportiva
Page 1 of 6

Xerez Deportivo FC

(Away)
03 May
Recreativo Huelva
3 : 2
Xerez Deportivo FC
26 Apr
Xerez Deportivo FC
0 : 0
Xerez CD
19 Apr
Deportiva Minera
2 : 1
Xerez Deportivo FC
12 Apr
Xerez Deportivo FC
0 : 0
Linares
05 Apr
Aguilas FC
3 : 0
Xerez Deportivo FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1CD Extremadura341712554:3863
2Deportiva Minera34196950:3363
3Aguilas FC34187945:2561
4Xerez CD34178932:2459
5Jaen341610843:3358
6Recreativo Huelva34169941:2557
7UCAM Murcia341671149:4155
8Linares341114942:4547
9La Union (Malacitano)341361544:4345
10Lorca Deportiva341291332:3645
11Yeclano341281433:3344
12Antoniano341281438:4044
13CD Estepona341281440:4444
14Puente Genil3410101428:3740
15Xerez Deportivo FC348121434:4336
16Melilla347131436:4034
17Almeria B34492126:5321
18Malaga B34562332:6621
Promotion - Segunda RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Segunda RFEF - Group 2 2025/2026 (Play Out)