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Louisville City vs Indy Eleven - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

USL Championship Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
11:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Louisville City host Indy Eleven in the USL Championship. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: Louisville City at 1.62 goals for, 1.32 against; Indy Eleven at 1.29 for, 1.18 against. Past meetings favor Louisville City slightly — 3-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 22, 2026, ending 2:1. Model xG sits at 1.38 vs 1.31, favoring Louisville City. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Louisville City
20%
Draws
23%
Indy Eleven
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louisville City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Indy Eleven haven't matched Louisville City's recent run of results.
  • Louisville City are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 18%
Indy Eleven Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louisville City Indy Eleven
Matches Played 34 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 7 6
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.62 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 USL Championship
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven
2:0
Aug 30, 2025 USL Championship
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
1:3
Oct 5, 2024 USL Championship
Indy Eleven vs Louisville City
2:2
Apr 6, 2024 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Indy Eleven
5:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louisville City 67 / 100
Indy Eleven 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louisville City Indy Eleven

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Louisville City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louisville City scored in 88% of their last 34 games.

Historical meetings average 4.20 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Indy Eleven conceded in 79% of 28 recent games.

Louisville City has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Louisville City VS Indy Eleven
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Louisville City

(Home)
04 Oct
Hartford Athletic
0 : 1
Louisville City
25 Sept
Hartford Athletic
2 : 2
Louisville City
19 Sept
Louisville City
2 : 1
Loudoun United
12 Sept
Louisville City
1 : 2
El Paso Locomotive
09 Sept
San Antonio FC
0 : 1
Louisville City
Page 1 of 7

Indy Eleven

(Away)
03 Oct
Loudoun United
1 : 1
Indy Eleven
30 Sept
Rhode Island
1 : 0
Indy Eleven
26 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 2
Miami FC
20 Sept
Indy Eleven
0 : 1
Oakland Roots
15 Sept
Indy Eleven
4 : 0
Brooklyn FC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tampa Bay 27 15 7 5 46:25 52
2 Detroit City 27 13 8 6 33:20 47
3 Charleston 26 14 4 8 52:31 46
4 Hartford Athletic 26 9 12 5 29:26 39
5 Rhode Island 26 11 5 10 39:29 38
6 Pittsburgh Riverhounds 27 11 5 11 28:27 38
7 Louisville City 26 10 7 9 43:42 37
8 Miami FC 28 9 9 10 38:45 36
9 Indy Eleven 27 9 7 11 33:33 34
10 Loudoun United 26 4 12 10 32:44 24
11 Birmingham Legion 26 4 11 11 36:43 23
12 Brooklyn FC 27 4 6 17 27:55 18
13 Sporting Jax 27 3 5 19 32:73 14
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 El Paso Locomotive 27 14 5 8 46:35 47
2 New Mexico 27 13 7 7 41:32 46
3 Lexington 28 13 5 10 49:33 44
4 Sacramento Republic 27 11 11 5 37:25 44
5 FC Tulsa 28 11 10 7 32:25 43
6 Colorado Springs 27 11 7 9 40:37 40
7 Orange County SC 27 10 9 8 36:42 39
8 San Antonio FC 27 9 11 7 29:29 38
9 Las Vegas Lights 27 10 6 11 35:38 36
10 Oakland Roots 27 8 10 9 33:35 34
11 Phoenix Rising 27 8 9 10 36:40 33
12 Monterey Bay 27 5 6 16 29:47 21
Promotion - USL Championship (Play Offs)