Sport Picks
Louisville City vs Lexington
USA
USL Cup Lynn Family Stadium, Louisville, KY 
Match Events
12'
12'
Rodrigues B. P.
Assist: Molloy A.
24'
24'
Goodrum P.
28'
28'
Wilson J.
Assist: Gleadle S.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-2, with Louisville City advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
60%
22%
18%
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Louisville City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
82%
/ Very High Confidence
- Louisville City carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans Louisville City's way, sitting at 60%.
- Louisville City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Louisville City, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors Louisville City here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Louisville City Clean Sheet 13%
Lexington Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Louisville City | Lexington |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 17 | 13 |
| Draws | 3 | 4 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 2.13 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.25 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 2.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.25 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 12, 2026 USL Cup
Louisville City vs Lexington
4:2
Apr 1, 2026 US Open Cup
Lexington vs Louisville City
0:2
Mar 7, 2026 USL Championship
Lexington vs Louisville City
1:2
Jul 26, 2025 USL Cup
Lexington vs Louisville City
1:2
May 2, 2025 USL Championship
Louisville City vs Lexington
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Louisville City Compare
Top Goalscorer Wilson J.
2 Goals Assists Leader Donovan C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Lexington Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodrigues B. P.
1 Goals Assists Leader Zengue X.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Louisville City 57 / 100
Lexington 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Louisville City Lexington
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Louisville City's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.
Defensive concern: Lexington conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.
Solid form: Louisville City remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Louisville City VS Lexington
1.5 Goals Scored 2.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Louisville City
(Home) 26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
18 Jul
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
3 : 1 Louisville City
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
20 Jun
Detroit City
0 : 1 Louisville City
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Trinidad & Tobago
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
05 Jul
Louisville City
1 : 0 Hartford Athletic
14 Jun
Louisville City
2 : 2 Brooklyn FC
30 May
Louisville City
0 : 2 Tampa Bay
Page 1 of 3
Lexington
(Away) 26 Jul
FC Tulsa
0 : 0 Lexington
22 Jul
Lexington
2 : 0 Oakland Roots
15 Jul
Lexington
1 : 4 New Mexico
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
04 Jul
Tampa Bay
1 : 4 Lexington
Page 1 of 6
26 Jul
FC Tulsa
0 : 0 Lexington
12 Jul
Louisville City
4 : 2 Lexington
04 Jul
Tampa Bay
1 : 4 Lexington
06 Jun
Detroit City
1 : 2 Lexington
31 May
El Paso Locomotive
1 : 4 Lexington
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spokane Velocity | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:6 | 9 |
| 2 | Sacramento Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 8 |
| 3 | Athletic Club Boise | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:6 | 8 |
| 4 | Oakland Roots | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:6 | 4 |
| 5 | Las Vegas Lights | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 6 | Monterey Bay | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8:10 | 3 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colorado Springs | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 12 |
| 2 | New Mexico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 3 | El Paso Locomotive | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:5 | 6 |
| 4 | AV Alta FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 5 | Phoenix Rising | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:8 | 3 |
| 6 | Orange County SC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3:9 | 0 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 3)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Antonio FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 11 |
| 2 | Birmingham Legion | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 9 |
| 3 | One Knoxville | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6:4 | 6 |
| 4 | FC Tulsa | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 4 |
| 5 | Corpus Christi FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:6 | 4 |
| 6 | Chattanooga Red Wolves | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2:7 | 2 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 4)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Louisville City | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13:4 | 11 |
| 2 | Detroit City | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 4:4 | 8 |
| 3 | Indy Eleven | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:4 | 7 |
| 4 | Lexington | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8:8 | 6 |
| 5 | Union Omaha | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10:12 | 6 |
| 6 | Forward Madison | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:10 | 3 |
| 7 | Fort Wayne | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6:12 | 1 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 5)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hartford Athletic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 2 | Rhode Island | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7:3 | 7 |
| 3 | Brooklyn FC | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 4 | Portland Hearts of Pine | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7:10 | 6 |
| 5 | New York Cosmos | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5:11 | 4 |
| 6 | Westchester SC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6:10 | 2 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 6)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charlotte Independence | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8:4 | 10 |
| 2 | Charleston | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9:4 | 9 |
| 3 | Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6:3 | 8 |
| 4 | Greenville Triumph | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 5 | Loudoun United | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4:7 | 3 |
| 6 | Richmond Kickers | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 3 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
League Standings (Group 7)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tampa Bay | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10:1 | 12 |
| 2 | Miami FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11:5 | 9 |
| 3 | Sporting Jax | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:5 | 4 |
| 4 | Sarasota Paradise | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2:9 | 3 |
| 5 | FC Naples | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3:9 | 2 |
| 6 | South Georgia Tormenta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - USL Cup (Play Offs)
Ranking of third-placed teams
