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Louletano vs Covilha - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estadio Algarve, Faro/Loulé
Sun, Nov 8, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Louletano host Covilha in the Liga 3. This one's hard to separate. Recent numbers: Louletano at 1.45 goals for, 0.97 against; Covilha at 0.79 for, 1.25 against. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 0.94) point toward Louletano. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Louletano
35%
Draws
28%
Covilha
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Louletano lately — more wins on the board than Covilha.
  • Louletano are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Louletano Clean Sheet 20%
Covilha Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Covilha
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 15 6
Draws 6 10
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.45 0.79
Goals Conceded 0.97 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 42 / 100
Covilha 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Covilha

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Louletano scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

Covilha let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Solid form: Louletano remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Covilha's recent record shows 2 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS Covilha
1.25 Goals Scored 0.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
31 Oct
Mafra
2 : 1
Louletano
25 Oct
Louletano
2 : 2
Atletico CP
17 Oct
Louletano
0 : 1
Rio Ave
10 Oct
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Louletano
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
Page 1 of 6

Covilha

(Away)
01 Nov
Covilha
0 : 1
Caldas SC
25 Oct
CF Os Belenenses
1 : 1
Covilha
10 Oct
Covilha
0 : 0
Oliveirense
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0
Covilha
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 8 6 1 1 17:8 19
2 AD Marco 09 8 4 2 2 8:5 14
3 AD Fafe 8 3 4 1 13:7 13
4 Leca 8 4 1 3 11:9 13
5 SC Vianense 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
6 Vitoria Guimaraes B 8 2 3 3 10:10 9
7 Sao Joao de Ver 8 2 3 3 9:10 9
8 Varzim 8 3 0 5 11:13 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 8 2 2 4 8:13 8
10 Trofense 8 1 2 5 4:15 5
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 8 6 2 0 18:6 20
2 Atletico CP 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
3 Mafra 8 3 3 2 16:11 12
4 Caldas SC 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
5 Oliveirense 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
6 Santarem 8 3 1 4 9:14 10
7 Louletano 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
8 Covilha 8 1 4 3 5:8 7
9 Vitoria Sernache 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
10 Lusitano GC 8 1 3 4 6:11 6
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)