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Louletano vs Lagoa

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Ferreira L.
(Penalty)
54' Event
Ferreira L.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Louletano in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Louletano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Louletano
20%
Draws
24%
Lagoa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Louletano lately — more wins on the board than Lagoa.
  • 56% — that's where the model lands on Louletano taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Louletano have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 87%
Over 1.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 8.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 4%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 33.2%
Louletano Clean Sheet 68%
Lagoa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Lagoa
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 21 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1.46 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.81 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Lagoa
2:0
Sep 7, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Louletano
1:3
Feb 23, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Lagoa vs Louletano
0:5
Oct 27, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Louletano vs Lagoa
0:1
Feb 6, 2011 Second Division - Zona Sul
Louletano vs Lagoa
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 86 / 100
Lagoa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Lagoa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Louletano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louletano's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 37 recent games.

Defensive concern: Lagoa conceded in 77% of 30 recent games.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Louletano remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS Lagoa
1.13 Goals Scored 0.83
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 67%
50% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
Page 1 of 8

Lagoa

(Away)
19 Sept
Atletico CP
4 : 1
Lagoa
13 Sept
Lagoa
0 : 0
Serpa
06 Sept
Santa Clara B
1 : 2
Lagoa
23 Aug
Imortal
1 : 0
Lagoa
16 Aug
Aljustrelense
1 : 1
Lagoa
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Louletano 26 14 8 4 36:15 50
2 Malveira 26 13 8 5 38:23 47
3 Alverca B 26 14 5 7 49:32 47
4 Juv. Evora 26 12 10 4 36:23 46
5 GD Alcochetense 26 11 8 7 33:22 41
6 Sintrense 26 11 7 8 30:25 40
7 Lagoa 26 11 6 9 44:34 39
8 O Elvas CAD 26 9 7 10 33:29 34
9 Serpa 26 9 7 10 28:34 34
10 Oriental 26 7 11 8 29:35 32
11 Moncarapachense 26 7 10 9 21:21 31
12 Portimonense B 26 6 4 16 19:42 22
13 Industria 26 2 8 16 20:45 14
14 Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 26 1 11 14 20:56 14
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)