Sport Picks

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Louletano vs Santarem

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Estadio Algarve, Faro/Loulé
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Daniel Paulino
Assist: Mendes E.
11'
Mordomo R.
19'
Soumare A.

AI Match Summary

The Liga 3 game between Louletano and Santarem finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Santarem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Louletano
15%
Draws
31%
Santarem
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Louletano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Louletano come out ahead of Santarem on wins alone.
  • Model gives Louletano a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Louletano Clean Sheet 68%
Santarem Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Louletano Santarem
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 17 7
Draws 7 11
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.47 0.97
Goals Conceded 0.8 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Liga 3
Louletano vs Santarem
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Louletano Compare

Top Goalscorer Daniel Paulino
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Santarem Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Louletano 95 / 100
Santarem 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Louletano Santarem

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Louletano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Louletano scored in 83% of their last 30 games.

Santarem let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Louletano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Louletano VS Santarem
1.38 Goals Scored 0.63
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Louletano

(Home)
20 Sept
Serpa
1 : 2
Louletano
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Castrense
0 : 1
Louletano
23 Aug
Caldas SC
2 : 4
Louletano
Page 1 of 6

Santarem

(Away)
20 Sept
Santarem
5 : 0
Merelinense
12 Sept
Louletano
1 : 2
Santarem
04 Sept
Santarem
0 : 1
Caldas SC
22 Aug
CF Os Belenenses
5 : 0
Santarem
14 Aug
Santarem
1 : 1
Oliveirense
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 5 4 0 1 8:4 12
2 AD Marco 09 5 3 1 1 6:3 10
3 Varzim 5 3 0 2 8:5 9
4 AD Fafe 5 2 2 1 8:4 8
5 SC Vianense 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Leca 5 2 1 2 7:8 7
7 Vitoria Guimaraes B 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Trofense 5 1 1 3 2:7 4
9 Sao Joao de Ver 5 0 3 2 3:6 3
10 Pacos Ferreira 5 0 2 3 5:10 2
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 5 5 0 0 13:2 15
2 Atletico CP 5 3 1 1 8:3 10
3 Oliveirense 5 2 2 1 7:7 8
4 Mafra 5 2 1 2 9:5 7
5 Louletano 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
6 Caldas SC 5 2 1 2 5:5 7
7 Lusitano GC 5 1 2 2 4:5 5
8 Covilha 5 1 2 2 4:6 5
9 Santarem 5 1 1 3 3:10 4
10 Vitoria Sernache 5 0 1 4 3:13 1
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)