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Lucchese vs SCD Progresso Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group E Porta Elisa, Lucca
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Lorusso D.
25' Event
Lorusso D.
48' Event
Dionisi F.

AI Match Summary

Lucchese in this Serie D - Group E matchup, with the score ending 5-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lucchese.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

65%
Lucchese
15%
Draws
20%
SCD Progresso
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lucchese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / High Confidence
  • SCD Progresso haven't matched Lucchese's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lucchese's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group E form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 28%
Over 4.5 Goals 13%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 19%
SCD Progresso Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lucchese SCD Progresso
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 6
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.54 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.61 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.34 1.26
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Lucchese vs SCD Progresso
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lucchese Compare

Top Goalscorer Lorusso D.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Dionisi F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.67

SCD Progresso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.7

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lucchese 58 / 100
SCD Progresso 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lucchese SCD Progresso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lucchese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.

Lucchese found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: SCD Progresso conceded in 79% of 29 recent games.

Lucchese has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lucchese VS SCD Progresso
1.43 Goals Scored 1.38
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.25
57% Over 1.5 88%
57% Over 2.5 50%
43% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lucchese

(Home)
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0
Lucchese
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
5 : 0
Lucchese
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
Page 1 of 6

SCD Progresso

(Away)
27 Sept
Montevarchi
2 : 0
SCD Progresso
20 Sept
SCD Progresso
0 : 3
Seravezza Pozzi
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
SCD Progresso
2 : 1
Scandicci
06 Sept
Tau
2 : 1
SCD Progresso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Follonica Gavorrano 5 4 1 0 8:2 13
2 Prato 5 4 1 0 8:3 13
3 Seravezza Pozzi 5 3 1 1 13:3 10
4 Lucchese 5 3 1 1 10:8 10
5 Flaminia 5 3 1 1 8:8 10
6 Tau 5 3 0 2 9:12 9
7 Scandicci 5 2 2 1 8:5 8
8 Siena 5 2 1 2 11:7 7
9 Terranuova Traiana 5 2 1 2 10:8 7
10 Montevarchi 5 2 1 2 8:7 7
11 San Donato Tavarnelle 5 2 1 2 7:7 7
12 Mezzolara 5 1 3 1 3:5 6
13 Ternana 5 1 2 2 5:4 5
14 Sasso Marconi 5 1 1 3 6:9 4
15 SCD Progresso 5 1 0 4 3:13 3
16 Grassina 5 0 2 3 3:7 2
17 Rondinella 5 0 2 3 3:9 2
18 Ghiviborgo 5 0 1 4 3:9 1
Promotion - Serie D - Group E (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E (Play Out)