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Lucchese vs Sestri Levante Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 Porta Elisa, Lucca
Our Tip

Match Events

54'
Sub
Clemenza L. In: Primasso A.
Out: Clemenza L.
62'
Sub
Gemignani A. In: Fedato F.
Out: Gemignani A.
69'
Sub
Galli G. In: Welbeck N.
Out: Galli G.

AI Match Summary

Lucchese in this Serie C - Group A 2024/2025 tie, finishing 1-0. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Lucchese
20%
Draws
23%
Sestri Levante
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lucchese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Lucchese at 1.59 per game, Sestri Levante at 1.4.
  • Win probability leans Lucchese's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Sestri Levante, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 36%
Lucchese Clean Sheet 68%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lucchese Sestri Levante
Matches Played 27 30
Wins 11 11
Draws 8 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.59 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
1:0
May 10, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Lucchese
2:1
Feb 23, 2025 Serie C - Group B
Sestri Levante vs Lucchese
1:1
Oct 11, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
0:0
Jan 14, 2024 Serie C - Group B
Lucchese vs Sestri Levante
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lucchese Compare

Top Goalscorer Badje I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Sestri Levante Compare

Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lucchese 95 / 100
Sestri Levante 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lucchese Sestri Levante

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lucchese Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lucchese scored in 81% of their last 27 games.

Sestri Levante let in goals in 87% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Lucchese remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lucchese VS Sestri Levante
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
1 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lucchese

(Home)
27 Sept
Lucchese
3 : 2
Siena
20 Sept
Rondinella
0 : 0
Lucchese
16 Sept
Lucchese
5 : 0
SCD Progresso
12 Sept
Seravezza Pozzi
5 : 0
Lucchese
06 Sept
Lucchese
2 : 1
Montevarchi
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Sestri Levante

(Away)
27 Sept
Sestri Levante
1 : 2
AS Biellese
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0
Asti Calcio
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Caldiero Terme 0
Triestina 0
Pro Patria 1
Pro Vercelli 1
AC Milan U23 1
Spal 2
Sestri Levante 2
Lucchese 2
ACR Messina 0
Foggia 1