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Lugano vs Vaduz

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League AIL Arena, Lugano
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Papadopoulos A.
Assist: Mai L.
32'
Papadopoulos A.
37' Event
Mai L.
Assist: Steffen R.

AI Match Summary

Lugano in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lugano
30%
Draws
34%
Vaduz
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Vaduz have won more games recently than Lugano.
  • 36% — that's where the model lands on Lugano taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Lugano Clean Sheet 17%
Vaduz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugano Vaduz
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 15 22
Draws 8 3
Losses 6 6
Goals Scored 2 1.75
Goals Conceded 1 1
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Vaduz
2:1
Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Lugano vs Vaduz
1:2
Jan 15, 2022 Club Friendly
Lugano vs Vaduz
3:0
May 8, 2021 Super League
Lugano vs Vaduz
0:2
Mar 14, 2021 Super League
Vaduz vs Lugano
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugano Compare

Top Goalscorer Papadopoulos A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mai L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Vaduz Compare

Top Goalscorer Dalipi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugano 36 / 100
Vaduz 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugano Vaduz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugano found the back of the net in 97% of recent matches (29 games).

Vaduz has conceded goals in 74% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Lugano has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lugano VS Vaduz
2 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugano

(Home)
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
23 Jul
Lugano
1 : 0
Dukagjini
17 Jul
Lugano
1 : 2
Vaduz
10 Jul
Heidenheim
0 : 1
Lugano
07 Jul
Memmingen
0 : 4
Lugano
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Vaduz

(Away)
26 Jul
Lugano
2 : 1
Vaduz
23 Jul
Vaduz
4 : 0
Atletic Escaldes
17 Jul
Lugano
1 : 2
Vaduz
10 Jul
Altach
1 : 0
Vaduz
04 Jul
Vaduz
1 : 0
A. Lustenau
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Young Boys11004:23
2Thun11003:13
3Lugano11002:13
4St. Gallen11002:13
5Basel11001:03
6Lausanne10101:11
7Grasshoppers10101:11
8Zurich10011:20
9Vaduz10011:20
10Servette10010:10
11Sion10012:40
12Luzern10011:30
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)