Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lugano vs Vaduz

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League AIL Arena, Lugano
Lugano Logo

Lugano

2 - 1
FT
Vaduz Logo

Vaduz

Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Papadopoulos A.
Assist: Mai L.
32'
Papadopoulos A.
37' Event
Mai L.
Assist: Steffen R.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lugano in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
Lugano
15%
Draws
27%
Vaduz
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lugano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Lugano have won more games recently than Vaduz.
  • 58% — that's where the model lands on Lugano taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 80%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 80%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 40.400000000000006%
Lugano Clean Sheet 68%
Vaduz Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugano Vaduz
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 21 17
Draws 6 2
Losses 3 11
Goals Scored 2.4 2.23
Goals Conceded 0.83 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 2.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 26, 2026 Super League
Lugano vs Vaduz
2:1
Jul 17, 2026 Club Friendly
Lugano vs Vaduz
1:2
Jan 15, 2022 Club Friendly
Lugano vs Vaduz
3:0
May 8, 2021 Super League
Lugano vs Vaduz
0:2
Mar 14, 2021 Super League
Vaduz vs Lugano
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugano Compare

Top Goalscorer Papadopoulos A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mai L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.07
Avg xA / game 1.34

Vaduz Compare

Top Goalscorer Dalipi L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugano 95 / 100
Vaduz 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugano Vaduz

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 9:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugano found the back of the net in 100% of recent matches (30 games).

Vaduz has conceded goals in 90% of their last 30 outings.

Solid form: Lugano remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lugano VS Vaduz
3.13 Goals Scored 2.13
0.75 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugano

(Home)
20 Sept
Lausanne
0 : 4
Lugano
16 Sept
Lugano
4 : 1
St. Gallen
12 Sept
Lugano
2 : 2
Young Boys
06 Sept
Basel
1 : 3
Lugano
03 Sept
Lugano
1 : 0
Servette
Page 1 of 6

Vaduz

(Away)
20 Sept
Vaduz
1 : 2
Thun
13 Sept
Zurich
2 : 1
Vaduz
05 Sept
Vaduz
3 : 1
Lausanne
02 Sept
Luzern
2 : 1
Vaduz
30 Aug
Vaduz
5 : 2
Grasshoppers
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 9 8 1 0 27:7 25
2 Young Boys 9 5 4 0 31:18 19
3 Sion 9 6 1 2 23:14 19
4 Basel 9 4 1 4 17:17 13
5 St. Gallen 9 4 1 4 16:19 13
6 Luzern 9 3 3 3 17:18 12
7 Zurich 9 3 2 4 14:20 11
8 Servette 9 3 1 5 11:13 10
9 Thun 9 3 1 5 15:23 10
10 Grasshoppers 9 2 2 5 13:24 8
11 Vaduz 9 2 0 7 18:21 6
12 Lausanne 9 1 3 5 7:15 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)