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Lugazi vs Kitara

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
Our Tip

Match Events

32' Event
Kaddu P.
82' Event
Busolo P.
89'
Ayiko R.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Lugazi and Kitara finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kitara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Lugazi
35%
Draws
35%
Kitara
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Kitara come out ahead of Lugazi on wins alone.
  • Model gives Lugazi a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Kitara have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 38%
Over 2.5 Goals 24%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 68%
Kitara Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi Kitara
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 17
Draws 10 9
Losses 16 5
Goals Scored 0.53 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.23 0.65
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs Kitara
1:2
Oct 30, 2025 Premier League
Kitara vs Lugazi
4:0
Apr 15, 2025 Premier League
Kitara vs Lugazi
0:0
Sep 14, 2024 Premier League
Lugazi vs Kitara
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Top Goalscorer Busolo P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Kitara Compare

Top Goalscorer Kaddu P.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Shaban M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.63
Avg xA / game 0.38

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 51 / 100
Kitara 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi Kitara

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 2.50 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Lugazi stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Lugazi scored in 33% of their last 30 games.

Kitara let in goals in 48% of their last 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS Kitara
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.75
38% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Express FC
0 : 0
Lugazi
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
06 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Mbarara City
29 Apr
Buhimba
0 : 2
Lugazi
Page 1 of 6

Kitara

(Away)
30 May
Kitara
2 : 1
Villa
23 May
Kitara
2 : 2
Police
19 May
BUL
1 : 1
Kitara
15 May
Vipers
1 : 1
Kitara
12 May
Express FC
3 : 2
Kitara
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)