Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lugazi vs Maroons

Uganda Uganda

Premier League 2025/2026 Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Niwamanya D.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Lugazi and Maroons finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Maroons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Lugazi
30%
Draws
31%
Maroons
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugazi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Maroons come out ahead of Lugazi on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Maroons here — 4 wins from the last 4 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.2%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 20%
Maroons Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi Maroons
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 5 8
Draws 8 10
Losses 16 10
Goals Scored 0.62 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.34 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs Maroons
0:1
Nov 25, 2025 Premier League
Maroons vs Lugazi
3:0
Mar 28, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs Maroons
0:1
Oct 6, 2024 Premier League
Maroons vs Lugazi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Maroons Compare

Top Goalscorer Niwamanya D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 31 / 100
Maroons 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi Maroons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugazi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 1.50 goals as a typical output.

Lugazi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Maroons lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Lugazi scored in 38% of their last 29 games.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS Maroons
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.5
38% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
01 Sept
NEC FC
3 : 1
Lugazi
29 Aug
Lugazi
2 : 1
Kigezi HomeBoyz
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Express FC
0 : 0
Lugazi
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
Page 1 of 6

Maroons

(Away)
30 Aug
Maroons
1 : 2
Uganda Revenue
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Maroons
0 : 3
Vipers
12 May
Maroons
0 : 0
Entebbe UPPC
07 May
Kampala City
3 : 0
Maroons
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vipers 30 19 10 1 55:17 67
2 Kampala City 30 19 5 6 46:22 62
3 Villa 30 18 7 5 47:17 61
4 Kitara 30 16 8 6 43:22 56
5 Entebbe UPPC 30 14 9 7 30:20 51
6 NEC FC 30 13 12 5 31:22 51
7 Police 30 13 8 9 42:35 47
8 Maroons 30 9 11 10 26:27 38
9 BUL 30 9 10 11 30:33 37
10 Express FC 30 9 10 11 28:31 37
11 Uganda Revenue 30 5 16 9 27:30 31
12 Mbarara City 30 6 9 15 26:46 27
13 Lugazi 30 5 10 15 19:36 25
14 UPDF FC 30 5 7 18 24:41 22
15 Calvary 30 4 9 17 14:39 21
16 Buhimba 30 4 3 23 16:66 15
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)