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Lugazi vs NEC FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
Our Tip

Match Events

51' Event
Ssekamatte S.
73' Event
Ssekamatte S.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Lugazi and NEC FC finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward NEC FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Lugazi
30%
Draws
34%
NEC FC
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lugazi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • NEC FC carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Lugazi's way, sitting at 36%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and NEC FC have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 13%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 68%
NEC FC Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi NEC FC
Matches Played 31 31
Wins 5 14
Draws 10 11
Losses 16 6
Goals Scored 0.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2026 Uganda Cup
NEC FC vs Lugazi
2:0
Mar 6, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs NEC FC
0:2
Jan 7, 2026 Premier League
NEC FC vs Lugazi
1:0
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
NEC FC vs Lugazi
2:0
Oct 30, 2024 Premier League
Lugazi vs NEC FC
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

NEC FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Ssekamatte S.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 46 / 100
NEC FC 44 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi NEC FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Lugazi went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Lugazi scored in 35% of their last 31 outings.

NEC FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 42% of 31 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS NEC FC
0.5 Goals Scored 0.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.13
50% Over 1.5 13%
13% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Express FC
0 : 0
Lugazi
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
06 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Mbarara City
29 Apr
Buhimba
0 : 2
Lugazi
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NEC FC

(Away)
23 May
Calvary
2 : 0
NEC FC
20 May
NEC FC
1 : 4
Villa
13 May
NEC FC
3 : 0
Buhimba
09 May
Kitara
0 : 1
NEC FC
28 Apr
BUL
0 : 1
NEC FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)