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Lugazi vs UPDF FC

Uganda Uganda

Premier League Lugazi FC Stadium, Najjembe
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Ayiko R.

AI Match Summary

Lugazi in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Lugazi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Lugazi
17%
Draws
13%
UPDF FC
Draw rate projection: 17% Favored: Lugazi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence
  • Lugazi haven't matched UPDF FC's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Lugazi's way, sitting at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Lugazi Clean Sheet 68%
UPDF FC Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugazi UPDF FC
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 10 7
Losses 16 18
Goals Scored 0.5 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 18, 2026 Premier League
Lugazi vs UPDF FC
1:0
Dec 5, 2025 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Lugazi
2:0
Apr 11, 2025 Premier League
Lugazi vs UPDF FC
2:2
Sep 19, 2024 Premier League
UPDF FC vs Lugazi
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugazi Compare

Top Goalscorer Ayiko R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

UPDF FC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugazi 77 / 100
UPDF FC 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugazi UPDF FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUG Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

UPDF FC's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Lugazi remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Away concern: UPDF FC has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugazi VS UPDF FC
0.5 Goals Scored 1.13
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 63%
13% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugazi

(Home)
23 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Maroons
19 May
Express FC
0 : 0
Lugazi
12 May
BUL
0 : 0
Lugazi
06 May
Lugazi
0 : 1
Mbarara City
29 Apr
Buhimba
0 : 2
Lugazi
Page 1 of 6

UPDF FC

(Away)
23 May
Villa
2 : 1
UPDF FC
19 May
UPDF FC
0 : 0
Calvary
13 May
UPDF FC
1 : 2
Kampala City
07 May
Entebbe UPPC
2 : 0
UPDF FC
29 Apr
Police
2 : 0
UPDF FC
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vipers301910155:1767
2Kampala City30195646:2262
3Villa30187547:1761
4Kitara30168643:2256
5Entebbe UPPC30149730:2051
6NEC FC301312531:2251
7Police30138942:3547
8Maroons309111026:2738
9BUL309101130:3337
10Express FC309101128:3137
11Uganda Revenue30516927:3031
12Mbarara City30691526:4627
13Lugazi305101519:3625
14UPDF FC30571824:4122
15Calvary30491714:3921
16Buhimba30432316:6615
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup 2026/2027 (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League 2026/2027 (Main)