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Lugo vs Deportivo Fabril - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Teofilovic O.
(Penalty)
58' Event
Palma A.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Lugo and Deportivo Fabril finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Lugo
20%
Draws
28%
Deportivo Fabril
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Deportivo Fabril's 1.55 goals per match outpaces what Lugo have produced (1.18).
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Lugo taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Lugo here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Lugo Clean Sheet 68%
Deportivo Fabril Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo Deportivo Fabril
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 14 14
Draws 8 8
Losses 6 7
Goals Scored 1.18 1.55
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 Club Friendly
Lugo vs Deportivo Fabril
2:0
Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly
Lugo vs Deportivo Fabril
3:0
Jan 9, 2011 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Deportivo Fabril vs Lugo
1:2
Aug 29, 2010 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Deportivo Fabril
2:2
Apr 19, 2009 Segunda RFEF - Group 1
Deportivo Fabril vs Lugo
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Palma A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Deportivo Fabril Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 59 / 100
Deportivo Fabril 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo Deportivo Fabril

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.40 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lugo remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Lugo found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Deportivo Fabril's defensive record shows goals conceded in 66% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugo VS Deportivo Fabril
1.63 Goals Scored 1.25
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo

(Home)
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2
Lugo
26 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
Racing Club Ferrol
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
Lugo
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
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Deportivo Fabril

(Away)
10 Oct
Deportivo Fabril
0 : 1
Racing Club Ferrol
04 Oct
UD Logrones
2 : 1
Deportivo Fabril
26 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 0
Real Union
20 Sept
Ath Bilbao B
2 : 2
Deportivo Fabril
13 Sept
Deportivo Fabril
2 : 1
Ponferradina
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