Sport Picks

Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 Estadio Anxo Carro

Guadalajara

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This Primera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 encounter between Lugo and Guadalajara promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Lugo averages 1.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded in recent matches. Guadalajara shows a form average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Lugo, 0 wins for Guadalajara, and 3 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 15.02.26 ended in a 2:0 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.31 for Lugo and 1.50 for Guadalajara, suggesting the primary value lies in the Lugo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%

Lugo

35%

Draws

26%

Guadalajara

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Lugo picked up more points recently compared to Guadalajara.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.50 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 72%

Over 2.5 Goals 35%

Over 3.5 Goals 21%

Over 4.5 Goals 11%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 49%

Lugo Clean Sheet 16%

Guadalajara Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 65%

Second Half Goal 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lugo	Guadalajara
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	10	8
Draws	12	8
Losses	8	14
Goals Scored	1	1.17
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.57
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

15.02.26 Primera RFEF - Group 1

Lugo vs Guadalajara

Possession: 52% - 50% Cards: 3 - 2

2:0

09.11.25 Primera RFEF - Group 1

Guadalajara vs Lugo

Possession: 51% - 43% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

02.06.13 LaLiga2

Guadalajara vs Lugo

Possession: 48% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

06.01.13 LaLiga2

Lugo vs Guadalajara

Possession: 57% - 58% Cards: 2 - 3

0:0

27.02.11 Segunda RFEF - Group 1

Lugo vs Guadalajara

Possession: 43% - 44% Cards: 3 - 3

1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Lugo

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Guadalajara

Pressing Intensity Medium Block

Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks

Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez Y.

1 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Guadalajara Compare

Top Goalscorer N/A

0 Goals

Assists Leader N/A

0 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 38 / 100

Guadalajara 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lugo Guadalajara

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lugo or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +26%

3.23

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +20.8%

3.45

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Lugo 43%

Guadalajara 21%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Lugo 37%

Guadalajara 27%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Lugo 39%

Guadalajara 26%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Lugo 41%

Guadalajara 25%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Lugo 35%

Guadalajara 29%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Lugo 45%

Guadalajara 30%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lugo attacking → ← attacking Guadalajara

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo have found the net in 70% of their last 30 matches.

Guadalajara have conceded at least one goal in 77% of their last 30 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 1.40 goals per match.

Lugo remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Guadalajara suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

42 Points in last 5 32

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tenerife	38	22	10	6	62:24	76
2	Celta Vigo B	38	18	11	9	61:48	65
3	Zamora	38	17	10	11	53:42	61
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43:33	60
5	Real Madrid B	38	16	10	12	61:52	58
6	Pontevedra	38	14	16	8	49:31	58
7	Barakaldo	38	15	13	10	51:38	58
8	Unionistas de Salamanca	38	15	11	12	53:49	56
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36:40	53
10	AD Merida	38	14	10	14	47:53	52
11	Arenas Getxo	38	15	7	16	46:55	52
12	Racing Club Ferrol	38	13	10	15	41:47	49
13	Ath Bilbao B	38	13	10	15	38:46	49
14	Real Aviles	38	11	11	16	55:67	44
15	Cacereno	38	10	14	14	42:49	44
16	CF Talavera	38	11	10	17	38:47	43
17	Ourense CF	38	10	13	15	44:47	43
18	Guadalajara	38	10	11	17	44:58	41
19	Osasuna B	38	10	10	18	28:42	40
20	Arenteiro	38	6	10	22	29:53	28