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Lugo vs Ourense CF - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

World World

Club Friendly
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Reniero N.

AI Match Summary

The Club Friendly game between Lugo and Ourense CF finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lugo.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Lugo
20%
Draws
24%
Ourense CF
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Lugo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Lugo come out ahead of Ourense CF on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Lugo's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Lugo Clean Sheet 20%
Ourense CF Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo Ourense CF
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 16 8
Draws 6 8
Losses 7 13
Goals Scored 1.31 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.28
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2026 Club Friendly
Lugo vs Ourense CF
1:0
Apr 11, 2026 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ourense CF vs Lugo
4:2
Dec 21, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Ourense CF
2:1
Mar 29, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Lugo vs Ourense CF
0:2
Jan 11, 2025 Primera RFEF - Group 1
Ourense CF vs Lugo
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lugo Compare

Top Goalscorer Reniero N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Ourense CF Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 76 / 100
Ourense CF 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo Ourense CF

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lugo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lugo's goal record stands at 76% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Ourense CF's defensive record shows goals conceded in 72% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Lugo stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Lugo VS Ourense CF
1.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo

(Home)
01 Nov
Lugo
2 : 1
AD Merida
23 Oct
Real Union
4 : 1
Lugo
17 Oct
Lugo
3 : 0
Deportivo Fabril
12 Oct
Lugo
3 : 1
UD Logrones
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2
Lugo
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Ourense CF

(Away)
01 Nov
Bergantinos
1 : 1
Ourense CF
25 Oct
Ourense CF
3 : 0
Gimnastic de Torrelavega
17 Oct
Ourense CF
0 : 1
Coruxo FC
10 Oct
Atletico Astorga
4 : 0
Ourense CF
04 Oct
Ourense CF
0 : 0
Arosa SC
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