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Lugo vs UD Logrones - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Spain Spain

Primera RFEF - Group 1 Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
Mon, Oct 12, 2026
VS
06:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Lugo host UD Logrones in the Primera RFEF - Group 1. This one's hard to separate. UD Logrones have shipped 0.76 goals a game lately, while Lugo have conceded 0.93 and scored 1.18. Past meetings favor Lugo slightly — 1-0-2 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 21, 2025, ending 0:0. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.56) point toward UD Logrones. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lugo
20%
Draws
40%
UD Logrones
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to UD Logrones lately — more wins on the board than Lugo.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Lugo Clean Sheet 15%
UD Logrones Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lugo UD Logrones
Matches Played 28 34
Wins 14 23
Draws 8 7
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 1.18 2.41
Goals Conceded 0.93 0.76
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 21, 2025 Club Friendly
UD Logrones vs Lugo
0:0
Feb 21, 2021 LaLiga2
Lugo vs UD Logrones
1:1
Oct 24, 2020 LaLiga2
UD Logrones vs Lugo
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lugo 35 / 100
UD Logrones 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lugo UD Logrones

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick UD Logrones Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Lugo stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Lugo scored in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

UD Logrones's defensive record shows goals conceded in 50% of 34 matches.

Scoring Trends

Lugo VS UD Logrones
1.63 Goals Scored 2.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1
50% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lugo

(Home)
02 Oct
Real Aviles
1 : 2
Lugo
26 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
Racing Club Ferrol
20 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
Lugo
13 Sept
Lugo
1 : 0
CD Coria
04 Sept
Ponferradina
0 : 0
Lugo
Page 1 of 6

UD Logrones

(Away)
04 Oct
UD Logrones
2 : 1
Deportivo Fabril
27 Sept
AD Merida
3 : 5
UD Logrones
18 Sept
UD Logrones
1 : 1
Pontevedra
12 Sept
UD Ourense
0 : 3
UD Logrones
06 Sept
Zamora
1 : 2
UD Logrones
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 UD Logrones 6 5 1 0 15:7 16
2 Lugo 6 5 1 0 9:3 16
3 Ath Bilbao B 6 3 2 1 12:8 11
4 Cacereno 6 3 2 1 6:3 11
5 Ponferradina 6 3 2 1 5:3 11
6 Mirandes 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
7 Zamora 6 3 1 2 8:6 10
8 Racing Club Ferrol 6 3 1 2 7:5 10
9 Real Union 6 2 2 2 13:11 8
10 Deportivo Fabril 6 2 2 2 8:7 8
11 Pontevedra 6 2 2 2 8:8 8
12 Leonesa 6 2 2 2 4:5 8
13 CD Extremadura 6 2 0 4 5:6 6
14 AD Merida 6 2 0 4 9:11 6
15 Unionistas de Salamanca 6 2 0 4 9:12 6
16 Barakaldo 6 1 3 2 6:9 6
17 Real Aviles 6 1 2 3 9:10 5
18 CD Coria 6 1 2 3 8:11 5
19 UD Ourense 6 0 2 4 2:10 2
20 Arenas Getxo 6 0 2 4 4:14 2
Promotion - LaLiga2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Primera RFEF - Group 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)