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Lumezzane vs Union Brescia

Italy Italy

Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 Tullio Saleri, Lumezzane
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Mancini S.
22'
Crespi V.
34'
Paghera F.

AI Match Summary

The Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 game between Lumezzane and Union Brescia finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Lumezzane.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Lumezzane
35%
Draws
25%
Union Brescia
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Lumezzane

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Union Brescia have managed 1.13 goals a game lately — Lumezzane are scoring more at 1.17.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Lumezzane taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Lumezzane Clean Sheet 20%
Union Brescia Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lumezzane Union Brescia
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 13 13
Draws 13 10
Losses 4 8
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 0.63 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 11, 2026 Serie C - Group A
Lumezzane vs Union Brescia
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Serie C - Group A
Union Brescia vs Lumezzane
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lumezzane Compare

Top Goalscorer Iori M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Union Brescia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lumezzane 76 / 100
Union Brescia 12 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lumezzane Union Brescia

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUM Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lumezzane's goal record stands at 77% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Lumezzane has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Union Brescia's defensive record shows goals conceded in 58% of 31 matches.

H2H data points to 1.00 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Lumezzane VS Union Brescia
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
0.63 Goals Conceded 0.38
38% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Lumezzane

(Home)
08 Aug
Lumezzane
1 : 0
Crema
01 Aug
Cremonese
0 : 0
Lumezzane
06 May
Cittadella
1 : 0
Lumezzane
03 May
Lumezzane
0 : 0
Alcione Milano
25 Apr
Lumezzane
4 : 1
Virtus Verona
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Union Brescia

(Away)
09 Aug
Arezzo
2 : 0
Union Brescia
01 Aug
Pro Palazzolo
1 : 1
Union Brescia
07 Jun
Ascoli
3 : 0
Union Brescia
03 Jun
Union Brescia
1 : 1
Ascoli
27 May
Union Brescia
2 : 0
Salernitana
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vicenza 38 27 8 3 69:26 89
2 Union Brescia 38 19 12 7 49:24 69
3 Renate 38 17 13 8 53:37 64
4 Lecco 38 18 10 10 47:34 64
5 Trento 38 16 15 7 58:42 63
6 Cittadella 38 17 8 13 45:43 59
7 Lumezzane 38 14 14 10 46:39 56
8 Alcione Milano 38 15 10 13 35:28 55
9 Arzignano 38 15 8 15 50:48 53
10 Giana Erminio 38 14 10 14 38:39 52
11 AlbinoLeffe 38 13 11 14 51:49 50
12 Inter U23 38 12 12 14 40:41 48
13 Novara 38 9 20 9 40:39 47
14 Pro Vercelli 38 13 7 18 39:55 46
15 Ospitaletto 38 10 15 13 41:43 45
16 Pergolettese 38 10 11 17 37:50 41
17 Dolomiti Bellunesi 38 10 10 18 38:61 40
18 Virtus Verona 38 3 16 19 34:62 25
19 Pro Patria 38 4 11 23 34:70 23
20 Triestina 38 9 9 20 45:59 12
Promotion - Serie B (Main)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Serie C - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)