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Luparense FC vs Castegnato

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C 2023/2024
Our Tip

Match Events

9' Event
Arduini E.
23' Event
Cali V.
45' Event
Buongiorno D.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 game between Luparense FC and Castegnato finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Luparense FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Luparense FC
6%
Draws
4%
Castegnato
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Luparense FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Castegnato haven't matched Luparense FC's recent run of results.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Luparense FC taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Luparense FC have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Luparense FC Clean Sheet 20%
Castegnato Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luparense FC Castegnato
Matches Played 40 30
Wins 13 7
Draws 15 9
Losses 12 14
Goals Scored 1 0
Goals Conceded 1 0

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 12, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Castegnato
2:0
Mar 17, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Castegnato
3:0
Nov 5, 2023 Serie D - Group C
Castegnato vs Luparense FC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Arduini E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cali V.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Castegnato Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luparense FC 85 / 100
Castegnato 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luparense FC Castegnato

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castegnato's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Luparense FC scored in 70% of their last 40 games.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Luparense FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Luparense FC VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Luparense FC

(Home)
03 May
Este
2 : 0
Luparense FC
26 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 0
Vigasio
19 Apr
Conegliano
1 : 1
Luparense FC
12 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 2
Mestre
02 Apr
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Luparense FC
Page 1 of 8

Castegnato

(Away)
12 May
Luparense FC
2 : 0
Castegnato
05 May
Adriese
5 : 2
Castegnato
28 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 2
Treviso
21 Apr
Castegnato
1 : 4
Montecchio Maggiore
14 Apr
Chions
2 : 2
Castegnato
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Clodiense34255449:1780
2Dolomiti Bellunesi34199656:2566
3Treviso341931251:3760
4Bassano Virtus341591035:3054
5Campodarsego341215742:2651
6Este341312944:3351
7Montecchio Maggiore341491148:4051
8Adriese3413111054:4150
9Portogruaro341391252:4348
10Mestre341391234:3748
11Montebelluna3411121135:4145
12Chions3410111340:5041
13Luparense FC341091538:4139
14Breno348131339:4937
15Cjarlins Muzane347141330:3735
16Castegnato347121539:5833
17Virtus Bolzano344121825:5224
18Mori34362522:7615
Promotion - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C 2023/2024 (Play Out)