Sport Picks

Italy

Serie D - Group C

Conegliano

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Luparense FC play Conegliano in the Serie D - Group C. It looks like a close match. Recently, Luparense FC averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Conegliano averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Luparense FC won 0, Conegliano won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Luparense FC and 1.19 for Conegliano. This points to a Conegliano double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%

Luparense FC

35%

Draws

36%

Conegliano

Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Conegliano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Luparense FC picked up more points recently compared to Conegliano.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 65%

Over 2.5 Goals 32%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Luparense FC Clean Sheet 20%

Conegliano Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 59%

Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Luparense FC	Conegliano
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	9	13
Draws	11	10
Losses	10	7
Goals Scored	1.1	1.13
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.73
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Serie D - Group C

Conegliano vs Luparense FC

Possession: 49% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

1:1

Dec 7, 2025 Serie D - Group C

Luparense FC vs Conegliano

Possession: 56% - 44% Cards: 4 - 2

0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luparense FC 30 / 100

Conegliano 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Luparense FC Conegliano

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Conegliano or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +38%

4.76

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +23.2%

3.85

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Luparense FC attacking → ← attacking Conegliano

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luparense FC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Conegliano let in goals in 60% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Luparense FC went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Conegliano lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

38 Points in last 5 49

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Treviso	34	21	6	7	50:25	69
2	Legnago Salus	34	18	7	9	63:41	61
3	Clodiense	34	17	9	8	47:29	60
4	Este	34	14	13	7	40:29	55
5	Mestre	34	14	13	7	37:29	55
6	Cjarlins Muzane	34	13	12	9	41:39	51
7	Brian Lignano	34	16	8	10	58:34	50
8	Conegliano	34	13	11	10	36:28	50
9	Bassano Virtus	34	12	14	8	37:27	50
10	Campodarsego	34	13	9	12	37:34	48
11	Altavilla	34	10	16	8	28:24	46
12	Calvi Noale	34	13	5	16	38:40	44
13	Luparense FC	34	10	13	11	36:39	43
14	Vigasio	34	8	14	12	44:46	38
15	San Luigi	34	8	10	16	33:54	34
16	FC Obermais	34	8	10	16	33:46	34
17	Adriese	34	5	6	23	24:62	18
18	Portogruaro	34	1	8	25	25:81	11