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Luparense FC vs Mestre

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

42' Event
Bangal F.
(Penalty)
46' Event
Visinoni N.
60' Event
Corti A.

AI Match Summary

The Serie D - Group C game between Luparense FC and Mestre finished 1-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mestre.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Luparense FC
33%
Draws
27%
Mestre
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Luparense FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mestre come out ahead of Luparense FC on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Luparense FC's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Luparense FC Clean Sheet 68%
Mestre Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luparense FC Mestre
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 9 14
Draws 11 9
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Mestre
1:2
Nov 30, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Luparense FC
0:0
Oct 8, 2025 Coppa Italia Serie D
Luparense FC vs Mestre
0:1
Mar 23, 2025 Serie D - Group C
Mestre vs Luparense FC
1:2
Nov 10, 2024 Serie D - Group C
Luparense FC vs Mestre
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luparense FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Visinoni N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Mestre Compare

Top Goalscorer Corti A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luparense FC 50 / 100
Mestre 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luparense FC Mestre

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUP Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luparense FC scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Mestre's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 31 matches.

Recent resilience: Luparense FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Luparense FC VS Mestre
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
100% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Luparense FC

(Home)
03 May
Este
2 : 0
Luparense FC
26 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 0
Vigasio
19 Apr
Conegliano
1 : 1
Luparense FC
12 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 2
Mestre
02 Apr
FC Obermais
1 : 1
Luparense FC
Page 1 of 6

Mestre

(Away)
17 May
Legnago Salus
2 : 0
Mestre
03 May
Mestre
1 : 0
Treviso
26 Apr
Altavilla
1 : 0
Mestre
19 Apr
Mestre
1 : 1
Legnago Salus
12 Apr
Luparense FC
1 : 2
Mestre
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Treviso34216750:2569
2Legnago Salus34187963:4161
3Clodiense34179847:2960
4Este341413740:2955
5Mestre341413737:2955
6Cjarlins Muzane341312941:3951
7Brian Lignano341681058:3450
8Conegliano3413111036:2850
9Bassano Virtus341214837:2750
10Campodarsego341391237:3448
11Altavilla341016828:2446
12Calvi Noale341351638:4044
13Luparense FC3410131136:3943
14Vigasio348141244:4638
15San Luigi348101633:5434
16FC Obermais348101633:4634
17Adriese34562324:6218
18Portogruaro34182525:8111
Promotion - Serie D - Group C (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C (Play Out)
Relegation - Serie D - Group C (Additional match)