Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lusail vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cristo
20' Event
El Jaouni Z.
32' Event
Roustaei A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this QSL Cup tie, finishing 3-3. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Lusail
22%
Draws
18%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: Lusail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Lusail have won more games recently than Umm-Salal.
  • Model gives Lusail a 60% chance of winning this.
  • Lusail have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79%
Lusail Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusail Umm-Salal
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 11
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.88 2.38
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 14, 2025 QSL Cup
Lusail vs Umm-Salal
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer El Jaouni Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roustaei A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Cristo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Al Shammari M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusail 58 / 100
Umm-Salal 19 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusail Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LUS Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusail found the back of the net in 90% of recent matches (30 games).

Umm-Salal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Umm-Salal has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lusail VS Umm-Salal
1.88 Goals Scored 2.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusail

(Home)
24 Jul
Den Bosch
2 : 1
Lusail
18 Jul
Dordrecht
5 : 0
Lusail
30 Apr
Lusail
1 : 2
Al Bidda
25 Apr
Al Markhiya
0 : 2
Lusail
12 Apr
Lusail
3 : 0
Al Mesaimeer
Page 1 of 6

Umm-Salal

(Away)
01 May
Al-Gharafa
2 : 1
Umm-Salal
27 Apr
Umm-Salal
1 : 3
Al Ahli
08 Apr
Al Rayyan
3 : 0
Umm-Salal
04 Apr
Shamal
3 : 2
Umm-Salal
28 Mar
Al Rayyan
4 : 3
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Al Rayyan1081132:1725
2Umm-Salal1062226:1720
3Muaither SC1062221:1320
4Al Arabi (Qatar)1061327:1619
5Al-Waab1053216:1118
6Al Markhiya1053213:1218
7Al Sailiya1060416:1718
8Al-Shahaniya1052313:1117
9Shamal1043319:1115
10Al Bidda1043315:1415
11Al Khor1041518:1713
12Al Mesaimeer1034318:1713
13Qatar SC1041523:2313
14Al-Kharitiyath1041519:2013
15Al Ahli1023513:219
16Al-Duhail102354:179
17Lusail1014515:267
18Al Wakra1013617:226
19Al-Gharafa1012712:225
20Al-Sadd1012718:315
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)
Promotion - QSL Cup (Play Offs)