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Lusail vs Umm-Salal

Qatar Qatar

QSL Cup 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Cristo
20' Event
Fadi Z.
32' Event
Roustaei A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this QSL Cup 2025/2026 tie, finishing 3-3. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Lusail
30%
Draws
33%
Umm-Salal
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusail

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • Umm-Salal have won more games recently than Lusail.
  • Model gives Lusail a 37% chance of winning this.
  • Umm-Salal arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Lusail Clean Sheet 20%
Umm-Salal Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusail Umm-Salal
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 11
Draws 8 4
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.61 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.68 2.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 14, 2025 QSL Cup
Lusail vs Umm-Salal
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusail Compare

Top Goalscorer Fadi Z.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Roustaei A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.6

Umm-Salal Compare

Top Goalscorer Cristo
2 Goals
Assists Leader Al Shammari M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusail 85 / 100
Umm-Salal 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusail Umm-Salal

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lusail Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusail found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Umm-Salal's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 6.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Lusail remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Lusail VS Umm-Salal
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusail

(Home)
21 Sept
Lusail
1 : 0
Al Markhiya
11 Sept
Al-Gharafa
0 : 0
Lusail
04 Sept
Lusail
4 : 0
Al Wakra
28 Aug
Al Ahli
3 : 3
Lusail
20 Aug
Al Rayyan
1 : 0
Lusail
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Umm-Salal

(Away)
21 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 0
Al-Kharitiyath
07 Sept
Umm-Salal
1 : 5
Al Khor
30 Aug
Al Mesaimeer
1 : 2
Umm-Salal
25 Aug
Umm-Salal
1 : 1
Qatar U23
08 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
5 : 0
Umm-Salal
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Al Rayyan 10 8 1 1 32:17 25
2 Umm-Salal 10 6 2 2 26:17 20
3 Muaither SC 10 6 2 2 21:13 20
4 Al Arabi (Qatar) 10 6 1 3 27:16 19
5 Al-Waab 10 5 3 2 16:11 18
6 Al Markhiya 10 5 3 2 13:12 18
7 Al Sailiya 10 6 0 4 16:17 18
8 Al-Shahaniya 10 5 2 3 13:11 17
9 Shamal 10 4 3 3 19:11 15
10 Al Bidda 10 4 3 3 15:14 15
11 Al Khor 10 4 1 5 18:17 13
12 Al Mesaimeer 10 3 4 3 18:17 13
13 Qatar SC 10 4 1 5 23:23 13
14 Al-Kharitiyath 10 4 1 5 19:20 13
15 Al Ahli 10 2 3 5 13:21 9
16 Al-Duhail 10 2 3 5 4:17 9
17 Lusail 10 1 4 5 15:26 7
18 Al Wakra 10 1 3 6 17:22 6
19 Al-Gharafa 10 1 2 7 12:22 5
20 Al-Sadd 10 1 2 7 18:31 5
Promotion - QSL Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - QSL Cup 2025/2026 (Play Offs)