Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Lushnja vs Kastrioti

Albania Albania

Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Nuradin I.
12' Event
Peqini J.
45' Event
Farruku E.

AI Match Summary

The Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 game between Lushnja and Kastrioti finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Kastrioti.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Lushnja
15%
Draws
36%
Kastrioti
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lushnja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Lushnja haven't matched Kastrioti's recent run of results.
  • Lushnja are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
Lushnja Clean Sheet 16%
Kastrioti Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lushnja Kastrioti
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 6 13
Draws 6 3
Losses 19 16
Goals Scored 0.87 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.58 1.91
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Kategoria e Parë
Lushnja vs Kastrioti
1:4
Dec 20, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Kastrioti vs Lushnja
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Lushnja vs Kastrioti
3:2
Feb 15, 2025 Kategoria e Parë
Lushnja vs Kastrioti
1:0
Nov 30, 2024 Kategoria e Parë
Lushnja vs Kastrioti
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lushnja Compare

Top Goalscorer Peqini J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Kastrioti Compare

Top Goalscorer Nuradin I.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Farruku E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lushnja 57 / 100
Kastrioti 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lushnja Kastrioti

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Lushnja Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Kastrioti conceded in 84% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Kastrioti registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Lushnja scored in 55% of their last 31 games.

Scoring Trends

Lushnja VS Kastrioti
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Lushnja

(Home)
03 May
Lushnja
1 : 4
Kastrioti
25 Apr
Burreli
1 : 0
Lushnja
19 Apr
Lushnja
0 : 3
Iliria Kruja
11 Apr
Besa Kavaje
0 : 0
Lushnja
04 Apr
Lushnja
2 : 1
Korabi Peshkopi
Page 1 of 7

Kastrioti

(Away)
07 May
Pogradeci
3 : 0
Kastrioti
03 May
Lushnja
1 : 4
Kastrioti
25 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 2
AF Luftetari
19 Apr
Skenderbeu Korca
4 : 0
Kastrioti
11 Apr
Kastrioti
1 : 2
Laci
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Laci 33 24 7 2 60:23 79
2 Skenderbeu Korca 33 24 5 4 57:25 77
3 Pogradeci 33 20 8 5 63:31 68
4 Iliria Kruja 33 11 12 10 32:33 45
5 Besa Kavaje 33 10 9 14 41:43 39
6 Kastrioti 33 11 6 16 44:57 39
7 Burreli 33 9 10 14 27:45 37
8 Korabi Peshkopi 33 8 12 13 31:39 36
9 AF Luftetari 33 7 13 13 37:43 34
10 Kukesi 33 8 7 18 31:50 31
11 Apolonia Fier 33 6 10 17 31:44 28
12 Lushnja 33 5 11 17 26:47 26
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore (Main)
Promotion - Abissnet Superiore 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Kategoria e Parë 2025/2026 (Relegation)