Sport Picks
Lusitania FC vs Chaves - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga Portugal 2 Estádio do Lusitânia de Lourosa, Lourosa 
Match Events
7'
7'
Veiga R.
12'
12'
Simoes T.
30'
30'
Santos J.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this Liga Portugal 2 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
58%
15%
27%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Lusitania FC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
58%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Chaves lately — more wins on the board than Lusitania FC.
- Model gives Lusitania FC a 58% chance of winning this.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Lusitania FC Clean Sheet 68%
Chaves Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lusitania FC | Chaves |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 12 |
| Draws | 6 | 1 |
| Losses | 11 | 17 |
| Goals Scored | 1.25 | 1.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.32 | 1.53 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.81 | 1.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Oct 11, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Lusitania FC vs Chaves
1:1
Jan 24, 2026 Liga Portugal 2
Chaves vs Lusitania FC
2:2
Aug 16, 2025 Liga Portugal 2
Lusitania FC vs Chaves
2:2
Oct 20, 2024 Taça de Portugal
Chaves vs Lusitania FC
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lusitania FC Compare
Top Goalscorer Borges M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91
Chaves Compare
Top Goalscorer Rodrigues A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lusitania FC 95 / 100
Chaves 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lusitania FC Chaves
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lusitania FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lusitania FC has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Lusitania FC found the back of the net in 71% of recent matches (28 games).
Chaves let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Scoring Trends
Lusitania FC VS Chaves
2 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Lusitania FC
(Home) 20 Sept
FC Madalena
1 : 3 Lusitania FC
14 Sept
Sporting CP B
1 : 2 Lusitania FC
07 Sept
Lusitania FC
2 : 1 AFS
29 Aug
Academica
0 : 2 Lusitania FC
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2 Torreense
Page 1 of 6
07 Sept
Lusitania FC
2 : 1 AFS
22 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 2 Torreense
10 Aug
Lusitania FC
2 : 0 FC Porto B
01 Aug
Lusitania FC
0 : 2 Arouca
29 Jul
Lusitania FC
3 : 3 FC Porto B
Page 1 of 3
Chaves
(Away) 04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0 Chaves
25 Sept
Chaves
0 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3 Chaves
13 Sept
Chaves
1 : 0 Feirense
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1 Chaves
Page 1 of 6
04 Oct
SC Farense
4 : 0 Chaves
20 Sept
Guarda FC
2 : 3 Chaves
30 Aug
FC Felgueiras
2 : 1 Chaves
15 Aug
Sporting CP B
1 : 0 Chaves
02 Aug
Academico Viseu
1 : 0 Chaves
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitania FC | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11:4 | 16 |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 10:6 | 15 |
| 3 | Penafiel | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14:7 | 13 |
| 4 | Tondela | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 8:6 | 12 |
| 5 | SC Farense | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 11 |
| 6 | Vizela | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 11 |
| 7 | Benfica B | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7:5 | 10 |
| 8 | Leiria | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10:7 | 10 |
| 9 | Leixoes | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 10 | Portimonense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 6:7 | 10 |
| 11 | AFS | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8:7 | 9 |
| 12 | Academica | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8:10 | 9 |
| 13 | FC Porto B | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6:14 | 7 |
| 14 | FC Felgueiras | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5:6 | 6 |
| 15 | Torreense | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7:10 | 6 |
| 16 | Amarante FC | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6:10 | 5 |
| 17 | Chaves | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5:13 | 4 |
| 18 | Feirense | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1:8 | 1 |
Promotion - Liga Portugal 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga 3 2027/2028 (Main)
