Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato Nacional - Group D 2013/2014

Grijo

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lusitano FCV play Grijo in the Campeonato Nacional - Group D 2013/2014. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lusitano FCV averaged 0.84 goals scored and 1.53 conceded. Grijo averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Lusitano FCV won 2, Grijo won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on May 11, 2014 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.79 for Lusitano FCV and 1.19 for Grijo. This points to a Grijo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%

Lusitano FCV

26%

Draws

38%

Grijo

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Grijo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Lusitano FCV picked up more points recently compared to Grijo.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.79 vs 1.19 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 83%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Lusitano FCV Clean Sheet 20%

Grijo Clean Sheet 18%

First Half Goal 75%

Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lusitano FCV	Grijo
Matches Played	32	30
Wins	8	7
Draws	5	11
Losses	19	12
Goals Scored	0.84	1.4
Goals Conceded	1.53	1.67

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 11, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Grijo vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 53% - 41% Cards: 3 - 3

1:2

Mar 23, 2014 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Lusitano FCV vs Grijo

Possession: 48% - 58% Cards: 3 - 4

2:0

Dec 8, 2013 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Grijo vs Lusitano FCV

Possession: 43% - 58% Cards: 4 - 2

4:1

Sep 15, 2013 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Lusitano FCV vs Grijo

Possession: 53% - 42% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano FCV 36 / 100

Grijo 38 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lusitano FCV Grijo

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Grijo or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +28.5%

3.57

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lusitano FCV attacking → ← attacking Grijo

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano FCV scored in 50% of their last 32 games.

Grijo let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.50 goals.

Lusitano FCV went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Grijo lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

29 Points in last 5 32

0.38 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cinfaes	14	8	2	4	19:11	38
2	Anadia	14	6	4	4	17:14	35
3	Lusitano FCV	14	7	3	4	16:11	34
4	SC Lusitania	14	5	4	5	11:10	31
5	SC Espinho	14	5	4	5	18:17	28
6	Estarreja	14	6	2	6	12:19	28
7	Grijo	14	4	3	7	19:23	26
8	Bustelo	14	2	4	8	10:17	23