Sport Picks
Lusitano GC vs AD Fafe Prediction & H2H Stats
Portugal
Taça de Portugal 2025/2026 Campo Estrela, Evora 
Match Events
26'
26'
Gomes A.
43'
43'
Cande B.
56'
56'
Braga V.
Assist: Sengue H. D.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 0-1, with AD Fafe advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
23%
30%
47%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: AD Fafe
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and AD Fafe come out ahead of Lusitano GC on wins alone.
- Model gives AD Fafe a 47% chance of winning this.
- AD Fafe arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor AD Fafe, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 19%
AD Fafe Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lusitano GC | AD Fafe |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 11 | 15 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 0.97 | 1.47 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.97 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.75 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Dec 27, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Lusitano GC vs AD Fafe
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lusitano GC Compare
Avg xG / game 0.58
Avg xA / game 0.38
AD Fafe Compare
Top Goalscorer Braga V.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lusitano GC 10 / 100
AD Fafe 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lusitano GC AD Fafe
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick AD Fafe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lusitano GC found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).
Solid form: Lusitano GC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
AD Fafe let in goals in 57% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.
Scoring Trends
Lusitano GC VS AD Fafe
0.75 Goals Scored 1.38
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Lusitano GC
(Home) 12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0 Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2 CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1 Mafra
16 Aug
Caldas SC
0 : 0 Lusitano GC
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2 CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1 Mafra
08 Aug
Lusitano GC
0 : 1 Atletico CP
02 May
Lusitano GC
0 : 1 Atletico CP
Page 1 of 3
AD Fafe
(Away) 20 Sept
AD Fafe
4 : 0 Lajense
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1 AD Fafe
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3 AD Fafe
29 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1 AD Fafe
21 Aug
AD Fafe
1 : 1 Vitoria Guimaraes B
Page 1 of 6
13 Sept
Paredes
2 : 1 AD Fafe
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3 AD Fafe
29 Aug
Pacos Ferreira
0 : 1 AD Fafe
16 Aug
Sao Joao de Ver
1 : 3 AD Fafe
18 Jul
Sanjoanense
0 : 1 AD Fafe
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/128-finals
Florgrade 0
SC Espinho 1
TBD -
Almodovar -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Santa Clara -
Industria 1
Juv. Evora 0
SC Salgueiros 4
AD Pontassolense 2
Trofense 5
Varzim 1
Valenciano 1
SC Vianense 4
GD Os Nazarenos 1
GD Sourense 0
TBD -
Pacos Ferreira -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Sporting CP -
Moncarapachense 3
Viana Alentejo 0
Castro Daire 1
Anadia 2
Marinhense 2
Samora Correia 1
TBD -
Mosteirense -
Uniao Lamas -
TBD -
Urzelinense 0
Malveira 6
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
Carregal do Sal 1
Mortagua FC 2
Academica 0
Os Marialvas 1
Portimonense B -
TBD -
TBD -
Penafiel -
Fornos de Algodres -
TBD -
Charneca Caparica 1
Montijo 0
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
AFS -
Portalegrense -
TBD -
TBD -
Academico Viseu -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Gil Vicente -
Celoricense 1
CD Celeiros 0
TBD -
Mafra -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Porto -
Sintrense -
TBD -
TBD -
Vizela -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Rio Ave -
CF Os Belenenses 1
Amora 0
TBD -
Maritimo -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Estoril -
Sao Joao de Ver -
TBD -
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2
Lagoa 1
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Famalicao -
Cinfaes 0
AD Marco 09 1
SC Lusitania 0
O Elvas CAD 3
Vidago -
TBD -
TBD -
SC Farense -
Silves FC -
TBD -
TBD -
Oliveira Hospital -
Louletano -
TBD -
TBD -
Operario -
Atletico CP -
TBD -
Rebordosa 2
Leca 0
Sanjoanense -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Felgueiras -
Paredes -
TBD -
TBD -
Chaves -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Benfica -
UD Ovarense 7
SC Celoricense 1
TBD -
Covilha -
Uniao Nogueirense -
TBD -
TBD -
Aguias do Moradal -
CD Lajense 1
Lusitano GC 7
Serpa 3
Portel 0
Fayal 0
Olivais e Moscavide 5
TBD -
Uniao Da Serra -
Oriental 2
GD Alcochetense 1
TBD -
AD Fafe -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Moreirense -
Vitoria Sernache -
TBD -
TBD -
Portimonense -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Arouca -
Sao Martinho 1
Machico 2
SC Vila Real 3
Camacha 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Tondela -
Caldas SC 4
AD Portomosense 0
TBD -
Fatima -
Fazendense -
TBD -
TBD -
SC Mirandela -
GD Braganca -
TBD -
Maria de Fonte 1
Brito 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Braga -
Rebordelo -
TBD -
CD Gouveia 4
Beira Mar 2
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Nacional -
FC Alpendorada -
TBD -
TBD -
Estrela Calheta -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Estrela da Amadora -
Anca -
TBD -
TBD -
Vinhais -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Casa Pia -
Castrense 1
CDR Quarteirense 0
TBD -
Lusitania FC -
GD Resende -
TBD -
TBD -
Feirense -
Correlha 2
Valpacos 0
TBD -
Torreense -
Vilaverdense FC 0
Desportivo Moncao 1
TBD -
Oliveirense -
AD Limianos -
TBD -
Aparecida 1
Vila Mea 3
Vila Caiz 1
CD Ribeira Brava 0
TBD -
Electrico FC -
Tirsense 1
Amarante FC 2
TBD -
Santarem -
Naval 1893 3
Ac. Fundao 0
TBD -
Leixoes -
GD Peniche 8
Ferreira do Zezere 0
Lajense 0
1º Dezembro 1
SB Castelo Branco -
TBD -
TBD -
SC Angrense -
Sacavenense 7
CD Rabo Peixe 0
TBD -
Leiria -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Alverca -
1/64-finals
SC Espinho 5
Almodovar 1
TBD -
Santa Clara -
Industria 4
SC Salgueiros 2
Trofense 2
SC Vianense 3
GD Os Nazarenos 0
Pacos Ferreira 1
TBD -
Sporting CP -
Moncarapachense 1
Anadia 2
Marinhense 6
Mosteirense 0
Uniao Lamas 2
Malveira 1
TBD -
Vitoria Guimaraes -
Mortagua FC 1
Os Marialvas 0
Portimonense B 2
Penafiel 1
Fornos de Algodres 3
Charneca Caparica 1
TBD -
AFS -
Portalegrense 0
Academico Viseu 3
TBD -
Gil Vicente -
Celoricense 1
Mafra 0
TBD -
FC Porto -
Sintrense 2
Vizela 1
TBD -
Rio Ave -
CF Os Belenenses 2
Maritimo 0
TBD -
Estoril -
Sao Joao de Ver 6
Vasco da Gama Vidigueira 2
TBD -
Famalicao -
AD Marco 09 1
O Elvas CAD 0
Vidago 0
SC Farense 2
Silves FC 3
Oliveira Hospital 2
Louletano 5
Operario 0
Atletico CP 1
Rebordosa 0
Sanjoanense 0
FC Felgueiras 4
Paredes 0
Chaves 2
TBD -
Benfica -
UD Ovarense 2
Covilha 3
Uniao Nogueirense 1
Aguias do Moradal 0
Lusitano GC 1
Serpa 0
Olivais e Moscavide 2
Uniao Da Serra 0
Oriental 0
AD Fafe 1
TBD -
Moreirense -
Vitoria Sernache 1
Portimonense 2
TBD -
Arouca -
Machico 0
SC Vila Real 2
TBD -
Tondela -
Caldas SC 3
Fatima 0
Fazendense 1
SC Mirandela 2
GD Braganca 5
Brito 0
TBD -
Braga -
Rebordelo 3
CD Gouveia 2
TBD -
Nacional -
FC Alpendorada 7
Estrela Calheta 1
TBD -
Estrela da Amadora -
Anca 3
Vinhais 1
TBD -
Casa Pia -
Castrense 0
Lusitania FC 5
GD Resende 1
Feirense 0
Correlha 1
Torreense 3
Desportivo Moncao 1
Oliveirense 3
AD Limianos 0
Vila Mea 4
Vila Caiz 3
Electrico FC 2
Amarante FC 2
Santarem 0
Naval 1893 0
Leixoes 1
GD Peniche 4
1º Dezembro 5
SB Castelo Branco 7
SC Angrense 1
Sacavenense 2
Leiria 4
TBD -
Alverca -
1/32-finals
SC Espinho 0
Santa Clara 1
Industria 3
SC Vianense 0
Pacos Ferreira 2
Sporting CP 3
Anadia 0
Marinhense 1
Uniao Lamas 0
Vitoria Guimaraes 1
Mortagua FC 2
Portimonense B 0
Fornos de Algodres 0
AFS 7
Academico Viseu 2
Gil Vicente 1
Celoricense 0
FC Porto 4
Sintrense 3
Rio Ave 2
CF Os Belenenses 1
Estoril 2
Sao Joao de Ver 0
Famalicao 3
AD Marco 09 0
SC Farense 3
Silves FC 2
Louletano 1
Atletico CP 2
FC Felgueiras 0
Chaves 0
Benfica 2
Covilha 1
Uniao Nogueirense 0
Lusitano GC 4
Olivais e Moscavide 1
AD Fafe 1
Moreirense 0
Portimonense 1
Arouca 2
SC Vila Real 1
Tondela 5
Caldas SC 1
SC Mirandela 0
GD Braganca 0
Braga 1
Rebordelo 1
Nacional 3
FC Alpendorada 3
Estrela da Amadora 1
Anca 0
Casa Pia 3
Lusitania FC 2
GD Resende 0
Torreense 2
Oliveirense 1
Vila Mea 1
Vila Caiz 0
Amarante FC 1
Leixoes 2
1º Dezembro 2
SB Castelo Branco 1
Leiria 3
Alverca 2
1/16-finals
Santa Clara 3
Industria 0
Sporting CP 3
Marinhense 0
Vitoria Guimaraes 4
Mortagua FC 0
AFS 1
Academico Viseu 0
FC Porto 3
Sintrense 0
Estoril 1
Famalicao 2
SC Farense 5
Silves FC 1
Atletico CP 0
Benfica 2
Covilha 0
Lusitano GC 2
AD Fafe 2
Arouca 1
Tondela 0
Caldas SC 1
Braga 4
Nacional 2
FC Alpendorada 0
Casa Pia 3
Lusitania FC 0
Torreense 1
Vila Mea 2
Leixoes 1
1º Dezembro 1
Leiria 3
1/8-finals
Santa Clara 2
Sporting CP 3
Vitoria Guimaraes 0
AFS 1
FC Porto 4
Famalicao 1
SC Farense 0
Benfica 2
Lusitano GC 0
AD Fafe 1
Caldas SC 0
Braga 3
Casa Pia 1
Torreense 2
Vila Mea 0
Leiria 1
Quarter-finals
Sporting CP 3
AFS 2
FC Porto 1
Benfica 0
AD Fafe 2
Braga 1
Torreense 3
Leiria 1
Semi-finals
Sporting CP 1
FC Porto 0
AD Fafe 1
Torreense 3
Final
Sporting CP 1
Torreense 2
