Sport Picks
Lusitano GC vs Covilha - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Portugal
Liga 3 Campo Estrela, Evora 
Match Events
26'
26'
Batalha R.
Assist: Soares M.
38'
38'
Diagne O.
43'
43'
Innusah H.
(Penalty)
AI Match Summary
The Liga 3 game between Lusitano GC and Covilha finished 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
47%
30%
23%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Lusitano GC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
47%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Lusitano GC come out ahead of Covilha on wins alone.
- 47% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- Lusitano GC have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 68%
Covilha Clean Sheet 18%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Lusitano GC | Covilha |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 29 |
| Wins | 10 | 7 |
| Draws | 8 | 10 |
| Losses | 12 | 12 |
| Goals Scored | 0.9 | 0.79 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.07 | 1.24 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
2:2
Apr 18, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
1:0
Mar 14, 2026 Liga 3
Covilha vs Lusitano GC
1:3
Jan 4, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Covilha
2:1
Nov 22, 2025 Taça de Portugal
Covilha vs Lusitano GC
0:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Lusitano GC Compare
Top Goalscorer Batalha R.
1 Goals Assists Leader Silva D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41
Covilha Compare
Top Goalscorer Niang C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Lusitano GC 41 / 100
Covilha 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Lusitano GC Covilha
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Lusitano GC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Lusitano GC scored in 63% of their last 30 games.
Covilha has conceded goals in 76% of their last 29 outings.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Away concern: Covilha has suffered 3 losses in 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Lusitano GC VS Covilha
0.75 Goals Scored 0.5
1 Goals Conceded 0.88
50% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 13%
0% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Lusitano GC
(Home) 09 Oct
Santarem
3 : 0 Lusitano GC
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0 Lusitano GC
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2 CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1 Mafra
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
30 Aug
Lusitano GC
1 : 2 CF Os Belenenses
22 Aug
Lusitano GC
2 : 1 Mafra
08 Aug
Lusitano GC
0 : 1 Atletico CP
02 May
Lusitano GC
0 : 1 Atletico CP
Page 1 of 3
Covilha
(Away) 10 Oct
Covilha
0 : 0 Oliveirense
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0 Covilha
30 Aug
Covilha
0 : 1 Mortagua FC
22 Aug
Covilha
0 : 3 Atletico CP
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2 Covilha
05 Sept
Mafra
1 : 0 Covilha
16 Aug
Vitoria Sernache
0 : 0 Covilha
25 Apr
Caldas SC
1 : 1 Covilha
18 Apr
Lusitano GC
1 : 0 Covilha
Page 1 of 3
League Standings (Group 1)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paredes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11:7 | 13 |
| 2 | Leca | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9:8 | 10 |
| 3 | AD Marco 09 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6:5 | 10 |
| 4 | SC Vianense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 9:8 | 9 |
| 5 | Varzim | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8:5 | 9 |
| 6 | AD Fafe | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8:4 | 8 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes B | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:5 | 5 |
| 8 | Trofense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2:7 | 4 |
| 9 | Sao Joao de Ver | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3:6 | 3 |
| 10 | Pacos Ferreira | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5:10 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
League Standings (Group 2)
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CF Os Belenenses | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13:2 | 15 |
| 2 | Atletico CP | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8:3 | 10 |
| 3 | Oliveirense | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7:7 | 9 |
| 4 | Mafra | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9:5 | 7 |
| 5 | Caldas SC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5:5 | 7 |
| 6 | Louletano | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | 7 |
| 7 | Santarem | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6:10 | 7 |
| 8 | Covilha | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4:6 | 6 |
| 9 | Lusitano GC | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4:8 | 5 |
| 10 | Vitoria Sernache | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4:13 | 4 |
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)
