Sport Picks

Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025

Estrela da Amadora B

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Lusitano GC play Estrela da Amadora B in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group D 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Lusitano GC averaged 1.33 goals scored and 0.89 conceded. Estrela da Amadora B averaged 1.35 goals scored and 1.19 conceded. In past meetings, Lusitano GC won 1, Estrela da Amadora B won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 13, 2025 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.04 for Lusitano GC and 1.06 for Estrela da Amadora B. This points to a Lusitano GC double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Lusitano GC

26%

Draws

29%

Estrela da Amadora B

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Lusitano GC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

Lusitano GC picked up more points recently compared to Estrela da Amadora B.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.04 vs 1.06 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 41%

Over 3.5 Goals 25%

Over 4.5 Goals 12%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 22%

Estrela da Amadora B Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Lusitano GC	Estrela da Amadora B
Matches Played	36	26
Wins	18	7
Draws	7	9
Losses	11	10
Goals Scored	1.33	1.35
Goals Conceded	0.89	1.19

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 13, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Lusitano GC vs Estrela da Amadora B

Possession: 54% - 58% Cards: 3 - 1

1:2

Jan 5, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D

Estrela da Amadora B vs Lusitano GC

Possession: 52% - 46% Cards: 1 - 0

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusitano GC Compare

Top Goalscorer Santos Almeida R. C.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.68

Avg xA / game 0.44

Estrela da Amadora B Compare

Top Goalscorer Cande B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Silva F.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0

Avg xA / game 0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano GC 45 / 100

Estrela da Amadora B 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Lusitano GC Estrela da Amadora B

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Lusitano GC or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +17.3%

2.86

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Lusitano GC attacking → ← attacking Estrela da Amadora B

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano GC scored in 75% of their last 36 games.

Estrela da Amadora B let in goals in 73% of their last 26 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Lusitano GC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Estrela da Amadora B lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

61 Points in last 5 30

0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.00

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.00

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lusitano GC	26	18	4	4	57:14	58
2	Amora	26	17	6	3	41:19	57
3	Sintrense	26	16	4	6	39:26	52
4	Moncarapachense	26	15	6	5	39:19	51
5	Louletano	26	15	5	6	44:20	50
6	Serpa	26	13	6	7	42:27	45
7	Estrela da Amadora B	26	7	9	10	35:31	30
8	Lagoa	26	7	9	10	26:35	30
9	Industria	26	8	5	13	35:42	29
10	Fabril do Barreiro	26	6	9	11	21:32	27
11	Moura AC	26	7	5	14	27:50	26
12	Operario	26	6	5	15	22:43	23
13	FC Barreirense	26	5	7	14	31:47	22
14	Estrela Vendas Novas	26	1	2	23	12:66	5