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Lusitano GC vs Vitoria Sernache - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Liga 3 Campo Estrela, Evora
Our Tip

Match Events

16'
Sub
Lucas Daniel In: Dias A.
Out: Lucas Daniel
23'
Andrade Male S. A.
46'
Sub
Baixinho M. In: Monteiro R.
Out: Baixinho M.

AI Match Summary

Vitoria Sernache in this Liga 3 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Vitoria Sernache.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

11%
Lusitano GC
20%
Draws
69%
Vitoria Sernache
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Vitoria Sernache

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / High Confidence
  • Vitoria Sernache have won more games recently than Lusitano GC.
  • Model gives Vitoria Sernache a 69% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Lusitano GC Clean Sheet 18%
Vitoria Sernache Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Lusitano GC Vitoria Sernache
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 13
Draws 8 8
Losses 13 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2026 Liga 3
Lusitano GC vs Vitoria Sernache
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Lusitano GC Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Vitoria Sernache Compare

Top Goalscorer Henrique Cavalcante
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Lusitano GC 15 / 100
Vitoria Sernache 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Lusitano GC Vitoria Sernache

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vitoria Sernache Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Lusitano GC's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Vitoria Sernache's defensive record shows goals conceded in 48% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Lusitano GC has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Lusitano GC VS Vitoria Sernache
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Lusitano GC

(Home)
01 Nov
Lusitano GC
0 : 1
Vitoria Sernache
24 Oct
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Oliveirense
09 Oct
Santarem
3 : 0
Lusitano GC
12 Sept
Lusitano GC
2 : 2
Covilha
06 Sept
Louletano
1 : 0
Lusitano GC
Page 1 of 6

Vitoria Sernache

(Away)
01 Nov
Lusitano GC
0 : 1
Vitoria Sernache
25 Oct
Santarem
2 : 1
Vitoria Sernache
18 Oct
Brito
0 : 1
Vitoria Sernache
10 Oct
Vitoria Sernache
1 : 0
Louletano
19 Sept
Vitoria Sernache
2 : 1
Varzim
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Paredes 8 6 1 1 17:8 19
2 AD Marco 09 8 4 2 2 8:5 14
3 AD Fafe 8 3 4 1 13:7 13
4 Leca 8 4 1 3 11:9 13
5 SC Vianense 8 2 4 2 12:13 10
6 Vitoria Guimaraes B 8 2 3 3 10:10 9
7 Sao Joao de Ver 8 2 3 3 9:10 9
8 Varzim 8 3 0 5 11:13 9
9 Pacos Ferreira 8 2 2 4 8:13 8
10 Trofense 8 1 2 5 4:15 5
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 CF Os Belenenses 8 6 2 0 18:6 20
2 Atletico CP 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
3 Mafra 8 3 3 2 16:11 12
4 Caldas SC 8 3 2 3 10:12 11
5 Oliveirense 8 2 4 2 10:11 10
6 Santarem 8 3 1 4 9:14 10
7 Louletano 8 2 2 4 10:12 8
8 Covilha 8 1 4 3 5:8 7
9 Vitoria Sernache 8 2 1 5 6:15 7
10 Lusitano GC 8 1 3 4 6:11 6
Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Liga 3 (Relegation Group)