Sport Picks
Match Events
13'
13'
Nordas L.
Assist: Alli M.
34'
34'
Morris S.
Assist: Nordas L.
39'
39'
Fitzwater J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 4-0, with Luton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Luton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Exeter haven't matched Luton's recent run of results.
- Model gives Luton a 41% chance of winning this.
- Luton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Luton, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Luton Clean Sheet 18%
Exeter Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luton | Exeter |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 4 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 6 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 2.14 | 0.96 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.31 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 17, 2026 League One
Luton vs Exeter
3:2
Jan 1, 2026 League One
Exeter vs Luton
1:0
Dec 2, 2025 EFL Trophy
Luton vs Exeter
4:0
Sep 26, 2023 EFL Cup
Exeter vs Luton
1:0
Feb 3, 2018 League Two
Luton vs Exeter
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luton Compare
Top Goalscorer Nordas L.
2 Goals Assists Leader Morris S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Exeter Compare
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luton 58 / 100
Exeter 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luton Exeter
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Luton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luton's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Exeter let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.
Solid form: Luton remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Luton VS Exeter
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Luton
(Home) 22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
10 Sept
Stevenage
2 : 1 Luton
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
22 Aug
Luton
2 : 2 Notts County
Page 1 of 3
Exeter
(Away) 22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 Exeter
19 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0 Tranmere
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0 Exeter
08 Sept
Exeter
2 : 0 Tottenham U21
05 Sept
Exeter
0 : 0 Walsall
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Cheltenham
3 : 2 Exeter
12 Sept
Port Vale
1 : 0 Exeter
29 Aug
York City
2 : 1 Exeter
15 Aug
Grimsby
1 : 0 Exeter
10 Aug
Plymouth
2 : 0 Exeter
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
