Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Naismith K.
17'
17'
McAdam K.
Assist: Taylor T.
53'
53'
Wells N.
Assist: Clark J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Luton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Luton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Luton carry the better recent record into this one.
- 90% — that's where the model lands on Luton taking it.
- Luton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Luton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Luton have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Luton Clean Sheet 20%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 4 |
| Draws | 7 | 4 |
| Losses | 6 | 20 |
| Goals Scored | 2.63 | 0.75 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.13 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.63 | 0.75 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.13 | 2.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 15, 2026 League One
Luton vs Northampton
2:1
Mar 4, 2026 EFL Trophy
Luton vs Northampton
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Northampton vs Luton
0:1
Jul 16, 2022 Club Friendly
Northampton vs Luton
1:2
Aug 29, 2020 Club Friendly
Northampton vs Luton
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luton Compare
Top Goalscorer Wells N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Walsh L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.02
Avg xA / game 1.31
Northampton Compare
Top Goalscorer McAdam K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luton 85 / 100
Northampton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luton Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick LUT Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luton's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 93% of 28 matches.
Luton has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
Luton VS Northampton
2.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Luton
(Home) 25 Jul
Luton
2 : 0 Al Kholood
18 Jul
Barnet
2 : 2 Luton
11 Jul
Hitchin
0 : 5 Luton
02 May
Bolton
2 : 3 Luton
25 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Barnsley
Page 1 of 6
25 Jul
Luton
2 : 0 Al Kholood
25 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Barnsley
15 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Northampton
12 Apr
Luton
3 : 1 Stockport County
03 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Peterborough
Page 1 of 4
Northampton
(Away) 22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3 Northampton
18 Jul
Northampton
0 : 0 Coventry
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0 Northampton
02 May
Northampton
2 : 3 Plymouth
28 Apr
Northampton
0 : 1 Barnsley
Page 1 of 6
22 Jul
Southend
1 : 3 Northampton
11 Jul
Leicester
3 : 0 Northampton
25 Apr
Cardiff
5 : 1 Northampton
15 Apr
Luton
2 : 1 Northampton
03 Apr
Bradford City
1 : 0 Northampton
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City0
Huddersfield2
Salford2
Rotherham7
Doncaster5
Chesterfield1
Tranmere0
Fleetwood Town3
Bolton3
Bradford City0
Port Vale5
Barnsley0
Crewe1
Stockport County2
Harrogate4
Blackpool2
Luton4
Exeter0
Swindon1
Peterborough0
Bristol Rovers3
Cambridge Utd2
Leyton Orient0
Plymouth1
Cardiff1
AFC Wimbledon5
Colchester0
West Ham U211
Northampton2
Wycombe0
Stevenage1
Walsall2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield3
Rotherham0
Doncaster3
Fleetwood Town1
Bolton0
Port Vale1
Stockport County2
Harrogate1
Luton1
Swindon2
Bristol Rovers3
Plymouth4
AFC Wimbledon4
West Ham U212
Northampton4
Walsall2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield1
Doncaster2
Port Vale0
Stockport County4
Luton2
Plymouth1
AFC Wimbledon1
Northampton2
Semi-finals
Doncaster0
Stockport County1
Luton2
Northampton1
Final
Stockport County1
Luton3
