Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Naismith K.
17'
17'
McAdam K.
Assist: Taylor T.
53'
53'
Wells N.
Assist: Clark J.
AI Match Summary
This match ends 2-1, with Luton advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
41%
30%
29%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Luton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
41%
/ Low Confidence
- Luton carry the better recent record into this one.
- 41% — that's where the model lands on Luton taking it.
- Luton have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
- Historical meetings favor Luton, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Luton have taken 5 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
Luton Clean Sheet 20%
Northampton Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luton | Northampton |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 16 | 3 |
| Draws | 6 | 6 |
| Losses | 6 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 2.14 | 0.71 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.44 | 1.00 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 15, 2026 League One
Luton vs Northampton
2:1
Mar 4, 2026 EFL Trophy
Luton vs Northampton
2:1
Oct 25, 2025 League One
Northampton vs Luton
0:1
Jul 16, 2022 Club Friendly
Northampton vs Luton
1:2
Aug 29, 2020 Club Friendly
Northampton vs Luton
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luton Compare
Top Goalscorer Wells N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Walsh L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72
Northampton Compare
Top Goalscorer McAdam K.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luton 76 / 100
Northampton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luton Northampton
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Luton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luton's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Northampton's defensive record shows goals conceded in 86% of 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
Luton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Luton VS Northampton
1.75 Goals Scored 0.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
38% Over 3.5 0%
Recent Form & Match History
Luton
(Home) 22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
10 Sept
Stevenage
2 : 1 Luton
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
22 Aug
Luton
2 : 2 Notts County
Page 1 of 3
Northampton
(Away) 19 Sept
Northampton
0 : 1 Rotherham
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
05 Sept
Northampton
1 : 0 Newport
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1 Crawley Town
29 Aug
Gillingham
1 : 1 Northampton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Shrewsbury
2 : 0 Northampton
29 Aug
Gillingham
1 : 1 Northampton
22 Aug
Crewe
1 : 0 Northampton
08 Aug
Leicester
1 : 0 Northampton
01 Aug
Solihull Moors
2 : 4 Northampton
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
