Sport Picks
Match Events
16'
16'
Jones I.
Assist: Richards J.
33'
33'
Sub
Mengi T. In: Lonwijk N.
Out: Mengi T.
46'
46'
Sub
Andersen M. In: Johnson J.
Out: Andersen M.
AI Match Summary
Luton in this EFL Trophy 2025/2026 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
15%
54%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Plymouth
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Plymouth lately — more wins on the board than Luton.
- Plymouth are the model's pick here, at 40%.
- Plymouth arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Plymouth, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Luton Clean Sheet 10%
Plymouth Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luton | Plymouth |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 16 | 19 |
| Draws | 6 | 5 |
| Losses | 6 | 5 |
| Goals Scored | 2.14 | 2.03 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1.17 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.63 | 2.06 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Feb 24, 2026 EFL Trophy
Luton vs Plymouth
2:1
Jan 24, 2026 League One
Plymouth vs Luton
1:0
Sep 13, 2025 League One
Luton vs Plymouth
2:3
Feb 19, 2025 Championship
Luton vs Plymouth
1:1
Sep 27, 2024 Championship
Plymouth vs Luton
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luton Compare
Top Goalscorer Jones I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Plymouth Compare
Top Goalscorer Finn T.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luton 26 / 100
Plymouth 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luton Plymouth
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Plymouth Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luton found the back of the net in 89% of recent matches (28 games).
Plymouth has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.
These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.
Luton has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Luton VS Plymouth
1.75 Goals Scored 2.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Luton
(Home) 22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
10 Sept
Stevenage
2 : 1 Luton
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
Page 1 of 6
22 Sept
Luton
6 : 0 Ipswich U21
19 Sept
Luton
0 : 1 Bradford City
05 Sept
Luton
1 : 1 Leyton Orient
02 Sept
Luton
2 : 0 Stockport County
22 Aug
Luton
2 : 2 Notts County
Page 1 of 3
Plymouth
(Away) 26 Sept
Plymouth
0 : 1 Burton
22 Sept
Plymouth
5 : 1 Crystal Palace U21
19 Sept
Blackpool
2 : 4 Plymouth
12 Sept
Plymouth
3 : 0 Barnsley
05 Sept
Doncaster
2 : 3 Plymouth
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Blackpool
2 : 4 Plymouth
05 Sept
Doncaster
2 : 3 Plymouth
01 Sept
Leicester
2 : 0 Plymouth
22 Aug
Wycombe
1 : 1 Plymouth
04 Aug
Tavistock
1 : 4 Plymouth
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/16-finals
Lincoln City 0
Huddersfield 2
Salford 2
Rotherham 7
Doncaster 5
Chesterfield 1
Tranmere 0
Fleetwood Town 3
Bolton 3
Bradford City 0
Port Vale 5
Barnsley 0
Crewe 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 4
Blackpool 2
Luton 4
Exeter 0
Swindon 1
Peterborough 0
Bristol Rovers 3
Cambridge Utd 2
Leyton Orient 0
Plymouth 1
Cardiff 1
AFC Wimbledon 5
Colchester 0
West Ham U21 1
Northampton 2
Wycombe 0
Stevenage 1
Walsall 2
1/8-finals
Huddersfield 3
Rotherham 0
Doncaster 3
Fleetwood Town 1
Bolton 0
Port Vale 1
Stockport County 2
Harrogate 1
Luton 1
Swindon 2
Bristol Rovers 3
Plymouth 4
AFC Wimbledon 4
West Ham U21 2
Northampton 4
Walsall 2
Quarter-finals
Huddersfield 1
Doncaster 2
Port Vale 0
Stockport County 4
Luton 2
Plymouth 1
AFC Wimbledon 1
Northampton 2
Semi-finals
Doncaster 0
Stockport County 1
Luton 2
Northampton 1
Final
Stockport County 1
Luton 3
