Sport Picks
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
Brazil
Serie D Passo das Emas, Lucas do Rio Verde 
Match Events
74'
74'
Sandy
89'
89'
Danrlei Santos
Own Goal
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 1-1. The second leg ended 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
35%
32%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
35%
/ Low Confidence
- Ceilandia's 1.27 goals per match outpaces what Luverdense have produced (0.87).
- Model gives Luverdense a 42% chance of winning this.
- Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
- Historical meetings favor Luverdense, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Luverdense Clean Sheet 68%
Ceilandia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Luverdense | Ceilandia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 12 | 12 |
| Draws | 10 | 10 |
| Losses | 8 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 0.87 | 1.27 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.83 | 1.12 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.19 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 28, 2026 Serie D
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
1:1
Jun 20, 2026 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Luverdense
1:2
Jul 5, 2025 Serie D
Ceilandia vs Luverdense
1:0
May 10, 2025 Serie D
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
2:2
Mar 19, 2017 Copa Verde
Luverdense vs Ceilandia
3:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Luverdense Compare
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Ceilandia Compare
Top Goalscorer Sandy
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Luverdense 51 / 100
Ceilandia 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Luverdense Ceilandia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Luverdense's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
Defensive concern: Ceilandia conceded in 76% of 33 recent games.
Games between these two average 2.80 goals.
Luverdense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Luverdense VS Ceilandia
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Luverdense
(Home) 26 Jul
ABC
4 : 1 Luverdense
18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0 ABC
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0 Luverdense
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0 Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
Page 1 of 6
18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0 ABC
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0 Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
07 Jun
Luverdense
4 : 0 Inhumas
24 May
Luverdense
1 : 0 Aparecidense
Page 1 of 3
Ceilandia
(Away) 28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
20 Jun
Ceilandia
1 : 2 Luverdense
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1 Ceilandia
30 May
Ceilandia
1 : 1 Goiatuba EC
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3 Ceilandia
Page 1 of 7
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1 Ceilandia
07 Jun
Mixto
1 : 1 Ceilandia
23 May
Uniao Rondonopolis
2 : 3 Ceilandia
16 May
Capital
2 : 1 Ceilandia
03 May
Operario VG
0 : 1 Ceilandia
Page 1 of 3
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/32-finals
Independencia Futebol Clube 1
Manauara 3
Brasiliense 0
Goiatuba EC 1
Imperatriz 2
Maracana 1
Central SC 1
Ferroviario 3
America RJ 1
Piracicaba 3
Sao Joseense 1
Cianorte 2
ASA 2
Sergipe 1
Ivinhema 4
Democrata GV 2
Portuguesa RJ 4
Noroeste 2
EC Sao Jose (PA) 3
Santa Catarina 2
Jacuipense 1
Treze PB 3
CRAC 1
Tombense 0
Fluminense-PI 0
America RN 4
Sampaio Correa 2
Trem 3
Sao Raimundo RR 2
Porto Velho 3
Mixto 1
Gama 3
Serra Branca 3
Juazeirense 0
Rio Branco ES 2
Uberlandia 4
Sampaio Correa FE 1
Portuguesa 2
FC Cascavel 3
Marcilio Dias 4
Sao Luiz 3
Blumenau 2
Velo Clube 2
Agua Santa 1
Lagarto 1
CSA 3
Vitoria ES 1
Betim FC 2
Araguaina 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 1
Aparecidense 1
Capital 5
Tuna Luso 2
Iguatu 3
Maguary 2
Piaui 1
Monte Roraima 3
Guapore 4
Ceilandia 2
Luverdense 3
Parnahyba 2
Aguia De Maraba 3
AE Altos 1
ABC 2
1/16-finals
Manauara 2
Goiatuba EC 3
Imperatriz 1
Ferroviario 4
Piracicaba 0
Cianorte 4
ASA 6
Ivinhema 1
Portuguesa RJ 0
EC Sao Jose (PA) 1
Treze PB 3
CRAC 2
America RN 6
Trem 2
Porto Velho 2
Gama 3
Serra Branca 2
Uberlandia 3
Portuguesa 3
Marcilio Dias 1
Sao Luiz 4
Velo Clube 3
CSA 4
Betim FC 1
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 2
Capital 1
Iguatu 5
Maguary 3
Guapore 0
Luverdense 1
Aguia De Maraba 2
ABC 4
1/8-finals
Goiatuba EC 5
Ferroviario 1
Cianorte 1
ASA 6
EC Sao Jose (PA) 3
Treze PB 2
America RN 3
Gama 4
Uberlandia 2
Portuguesa 1
Sao Luiz 1
CSA 2
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 3
Iguatu 2
Luverdense 1
ABC 4
Quarter-finals
Goiatuba EC 1
ASA 2
EC Sao Jose (PA) 1
Gama 5
Uberlandia 3
CSA 0
Nacional-AM (Manaus) 1
ABC 3
Semi-finals
ASA 2
Gama 0
Uberlandia 2
ABC 1
Final
ASA 0
Uberlandia 2
