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Luverdense vs Operario VG Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense Passo das Emas, Lucas do Rio Verde
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Match Events

35' Event
Alisson Farias

AI Match Summary

Operario VG in this Matogrossense matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Operario VG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Luverdense
35%
Draws
26%
Operario VG
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Luverdense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Luverdense lately — more wins on the board than Operario VG.
  • Model gives Luverdense a 39% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.200000000000003%
Luverdense Clean Sheet 68%
Operario VG Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luverdense Operario VG
Matches Played 32 35
Wins 13 10
Draws 11 9
Losses 8 16
Goals Scored 0.91 0.91
Goals Conceded 0.84 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.48 0.98
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 4, 2026 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Operario VG
0:1
Feb 16, 2025 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Operario VG
0:1
Jan 20, 2024 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Operario VG
2:0
Feb 11, 2023 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Operario VG
0:2
Feb 9, 2022 Matogrossense
Luverdense vs Operario VG
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luverdense Compare

Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.74

Operario VG Compare

Top Goalscorer Alisson Farias
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.89
Avg xA / game 0.54

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luverdense 77 / 100
Operario VG 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luverdense Operario VG

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luverdense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luverdense's goal record stands at 63% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Operario VG let in goals in 66% of their last 35 matches.

Luverdense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Difficult form: Operario VG registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Luverdense VS Operario VG
1.25 Goals Scored 0.71
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.71
75% Over 1.5 57%
50% Over 2.5 43%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Luverdense

(Home)
26 Jul
ABC
4 : 1
Luverdense
18 Jul
Luverdense
0 : 0
ABC
12 Jul
Guapore
0 : 0
Luverdense
04 Jul
Luverdense
1 : 0
Guapore
28 Jun
Luverdense
1 : 1
Ceilandia
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Operario VG

(Away)
07 Jun
Goiatuba EC
1 : 0
Operario VG
30 May
Operario VG
1 : 5
Capital
23 May
Mixto
1 : 1
Operario VG
16 May
Operario VG
1 : 2
Uniao Rondonopolis
09 May
Ceilandia
0 : 1
Operario VG
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Luverdense 9 5 2 2 7:3 17
2 Mixto 9 4 3 2 13:4 15
3 Operario VG 9 4 2 3 9:9 14
4 Sport Sinop 9 3 4 2 6:4 13
5 Cuiaba 9 3 3 3 8:8 12
6 Nova Mutum EC 9 3 3 3 13:15 12
7 Chapada 9 3 2 4 12:13 11
8 Uniao Rondonopolis 9 2 4 3 7:7 10
9 Primavera AC 9 1 7 1 6:9 10
10 Várzea Grande EC 9 1 2 6 5:14 5
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Promotion - Matogrossense (Play Offs)
Relegation - Matogrossense 2 2027 (Main)