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Luzern vs Thun

Switzerland Switzerland

Super League Thermoplan Arena, Luzern
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Knezevic S.
Assist: Kabwit O.
8' Event
Maier N.
Assist: Gutbub M.
50'
Dorn P.

AI Match Summary

Thun in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 1-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Thun.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Luzern
30%
Draws
23%
Thun
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Luzern

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Luzern have won more games recently than Thun.
  • Luzern are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Thun here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.8%
Luzern Clean Sheet 10%
Thun Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Luzern Thun
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 15 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 2.07 1.9
Goals Conceded 1.59 2.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.06 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 25, 2026 Super League
Luzern vs Thun
1:3
Feb 28, 2026 Super League
Thun vs Luzern
2:1
Dec 6, 2025 Super League
Thun vs Luzern
4:1
Aug 9, 2025 Super League
Luzern vs Thun
1:2
Oct 11, 2024 Club Friendly
Thun vs Luzern
2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Luzern Compare

Top Goalscorer Knezevic S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03

Thun Compare

Top Goalscorer Burgy N.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Maier N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Luzern 47 / 100
Thun 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Luzern Thun

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Luzern Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Luzern's goal record stands at 90% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Thun let in goals in 90% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Luzern remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Luzern VS Thun
1.75 Goals Scored 2.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Luzern

(Home)
13 Sept
Luzern
2 : 4
Basel
05 Sept
Young Boys
3 : 3
Luzern
02 Sept
Luzern
2 : 1
Vaduz
29 Aug
Servette
1 : 1
Luzern
22 Aug
Luzern
1 : 0
Lausanne
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Thun

(Away)
16 Sept
Thun
2 : 4
Servette
12 Sept
Thun
0 : 1
Grasshoppers
06 Sept
Sion
3 : 2
Thun
02 Sept
Thun
0 : 0
Lausanne
30 Aug
St. Gallen
3 : 4
Thun
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lugano 8 7 1 0 23:7 22
2 Sion 8 6 0 2 22:13 18
3 Young Boys 8 4 4 0 28:16 16
4 Basel 8 4 1 3 16:14 13
5 Servette 8 3 1 4 9:10 10
6 St. Gallen 8 3 1 4 13:18 10
7 Zurich 8 3 1 4 13:19 10
8 Luzern 8 2 3 3 12:17 9
9 Grasshoppers 8 2 2 4 12:19 8
10 Thun 8 2 1 5 13:22 7
11 Vaduz 8 2 0 6 17:19 6
12 Lausanne 8 1 3 4 7:11 6
Promotion - Super League (Championship Group)
Relegation - Super League (Relegation Group)