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M. Lipetsk vs FK Shumbrat Saransk Prediction & H2H Stats

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Karpov K.

AI Match Summary

The FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 game between M. Lipetsk and FK Shumbrat Saransk finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Shumbrat Saransk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
M. Lipetsk
15%
Draws
39%
FK Shumbrat Saransk
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: M. Lipetsk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • M. Lipetsk carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
M. Lipetsk Clean Sheet 18%
FK Shumbrat Saransk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric M. Lipetsk FK Shumbrat Saransk
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 14 13
Draws 6 4
Losses 10 10
Goals Scored 1.6 1.7
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 5, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
M. Lipetsk vs FK Shumbrat Saransk
0:1
May 16, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
FK Shumbrat Saransk vs M. Lipetsk
2:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

M. Lipetsk Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

FK Shumbrat Saransk Compare

Top Goalscorer Karpov K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

M. Lipetsk 32 / 100
FK Shumbrat Saransk 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
M. Lipetsk FK Shumbrat Saransk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

M. Lipetsk scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

FK Shumbrat Saransk let in goals in 63% of their last 27 matches.

M. Lipetsk went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

M. Lipetsk VS FK Shumbrat Saransk
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

M. Lipetsk

(Home)
27 Sept
Arsenal Tula 2
0 : 0
M. Lipetsk
19 Sept
M. Lipetsk
1 : 0
Strogino Moscow
12 Sept
SKA Khabarovsk 2
1 : 3
M. Lipetsk
05 Sept
M. Lipetsk
0 : 1
FK Shumbrat Saransk
29 Aug
Spartak Tambov
3 : 1
M. Lipetsk
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FK Shumbrat Saransk

(Away)
26 Sept
FK Shumbrat Saransk
0 : 1
Salyut-Belgorod
17 Sept
FC Oryol
0 : 2
FK Shumbrat Saransk
12 Sept
FK Shumbrat Saransk
2 : 3
Rodina Moscow 3
05 Sept
M. Lipetsk
0 : 1
FK Shumbrat Saransk
29 Aug
FK Shumbrat Saransk
1 : 3
Penza
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