Sport Picks

Netherlands

KNVB Beker De Geusselt, Maastricht

Excelsior

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 5-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Excelsior have shipped 1.48 goals a game lately, while Maastricht have conceded 1.9 and scored 1.14. Past meetings favor Excelsior slightly — 0-4-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 4, 2025, ending 1:2. xG projections (1.31 - 2.06) back Excelsior to edge this. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%

Maastricht

30%

Draws

37%

Excelsior

Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Excelsior

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence

Excelsior have won more games recently than Maastricht.
Excelsior are the model's pick here, at 70%.
Excelsior arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
Historical meetings favor Excelsior, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors Excelsior here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%

Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.2%

Maastricht Clean Sheet 10%

Excelsior Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Maastricht	Excelsior
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	8	13
Draws	9	9
Losses	12	9
Goals Scored	1.14	2
Goals Conceded	1.9	1.48
Expected Goals (xG)	1.31	2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 4, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Maastricht vs Excelsior

1:2

Oct 18, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Excelsior vs Maastricht

3:2

Oct 19, 2022 KNVB Beker

Excelsior vs Maastricht

5:1

Apr 15, 2022 Eerste Divisie

Maastricht vs Excelsior

1:1

Dec 10, 2021 Eerste Divisie

Excelsior vs Maastricht

2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maastricht 14 / 100

Excelsior 65 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Maastricht Excelsior

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Excelsior Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Excelsior has conceded goals in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.80 goals per match.

Maastricht found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Maastricht has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Maastricht VS Excelsior

1.38 Goals Scored 2.5

1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25

75% Over 1.5 100%

63% Over 2.5 100%

25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Maastricht

(Home)

26 Sept

Maastricht

2 : 0

Helmond Sport

18 Sept

Waalwijk

6 : 1

Maastricht

11 Sept

Maastricht

0 : 4

Almere City

06 Sept

Maastricht

1 : 1

Roda

28 Aug

Jong AZ Alkmaar

1 : 2

Maastricht

Page 1 of 6

Excelsior

(Away)

19 Sept

Ajax

2 : 2

Excelsior

13 Sept

Excelsior

1 : 2

Utrecht

08 Sept

Nijmegen

2 : 2

Excelsior

05 Sept

Willem II

0 : 3

Excelsior

29 Aug

Excelsior

2 : 1

Sparta Rotterdam

Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Scroll horizontally to view stages →

1/128-finals

ACV Assen 6

Westlandia 1

VV Hoogeveen 3

SVZW Wierden 2

Groene Ster 2

VV Heerjansdam 1

Be Quick 1887 0

AFC 2

Hardenberg -

TBD -

Barendrecht -

TBD -

Harkemase Boys 0

Excelsior 31 1

Alkmaarse FC 1934 4

VV Scherpenzeel 1

TBD -

Sportlust 3

Blauw Geel 1

ADO 20 Heemskerk 1

Excelsior Maassluis 2

TBD -

GVVV -

TBD -

ATC 65 1

DVS '33 Ermelo 2

GOES 0

VV Noordwijk 1

HZVV Hoogeveen 0

Frisia 4

TBD -

Sparta Nijkerk 2

Venray 0

Rkvv Spartaan 20 0

RKSV UDI 19 5

Dongen 2

Watergraafsmeer 4

TEC 4

Almkerk 2

TBD -

NAC Breda -

Longa '30 0

Koninklijke HFC 4

Surhusterfean 1

VV DOVO 2

TBD -

G.A. Eagles -

Mierlo-Hout 2

Germania Groesbeek 3

TBD -

Kozakken Boys -

TBD -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

TBD -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TBD -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

TBD -

Elinkwijk 0

Eemdijk 3

GSV 28 0

Roosendaal 4

Rijnsburgse Boys -

TBD -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam -

TBD -

Spakenburg -

TOGB 3

Katwijk 2

TBD -

Rohda Raalte -

Roda -

TBD -

De Graafschap -

Staphorst 3

UNA 2

Genemuiden 2

Lisse 1

TBD -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

TBD -

Sittard -

Telstar -

TBD -

Almere City -

Lierop 0

VV Zwaluwen 7

Purmersteijn 4

RKVV Zwaluw 3

IJsselmeervogels -

TBD -

FC 's-Gravenzande 0

Gemert 2

NSVV 2

VV Kloetinge 4

Achilles Veen 4

SV Poortugaal 2

TBD -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

TBD -

Vitesse -

Rijnvogels 5

VV Bennekom 0

VVSB 2

Ajax (Am) 0

USV Hercules 1

EVV 3

HVV Hollandia 2

RKSV Halsteren 3

TBD -

1/64-finals

ACV Assen 2

VV Hoogeveen 1

Groene Ster 1

AFC 6

Hardenberg 0

Barendrecht 1

TBD -

Excelsior 31 4

Alkmaarse FC 1934 3

TBD -

Sportlust 0

Excelsior Maassluis 2

TBD -

GVVV 4

DVS '33 Ermelo 0

VV Noordwijk 1

Frisia 0

TBD -

Sparta Nijkerk 3

RKSV UDI 19 1

Watergraafsmeer 5

TEC 4

TBD -

NAC Breda -

Koninklijke HFC 3

VV DOVO 1

TBD -

G.A. Eagles -

Germania Groesbeek 1

Kozakken Boys 5

TBD -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

TBD -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TBD -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

TBD -

Eemdijk 2

Roosendaal 1

Rijnsburgse Boys -

TBD -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam 3

Spakenburg 2

TOGB 4

Rohda Raalte 6

Roda -

TBD -

De Graafschap -

Staphorst 2

Genemuiden 3

TBD -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

TBD -

Sittard -

Telstar -

TBD -

Almere City -

VV Zwaluwen 0

Purmersteijn 1

IJsselmeervogels 0

Gemert 3

VV Kloetinge 8

Achilles Veen 0

TBD -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

TBD -

Vitesse -

Rijnvogels 0

VVSB 1

EVV 3

RKSV Halsteren 1

TBD -

1/32-finals

ACV Assen -

AFC -

Barendrecht -

Waalwijk -

De Treffers -

Heracles -

Excelsior 31 -

Den Haag -

Excelsior Maassluis -

Heerenveen -

Eindhoven FC -

FC Volendam -

Groningen -

FC Emmen -

GVVV -

VV Noordwijk -

Helmond Sport -

Willem II -

HSV Hoek -

Sparta Nijkerk -

Watergraafsmeer -

NAC Breda -

Koninklijke HFC -

G.A. Eagles -

Kozakken Boys -

Utrecht -

Maastricht -

Excelsior -

Zwolle -

TOP Oss -

Quick Boys -

Eemdijk -

Rijnsburgse Boys -

Den Bosch -

RKAV Volendam -

Rohda Raalte -

Roda -

De Graafschap -

Genemuiden -

Dordrecht -

Sparta Rotterdam -

Sittard -

Telstar -

Almere City -

Purmersteijn -

Gemert -

VV Kloetinge -

Cambuur -

Venlo -

Vitesse -

VVSB -

EVV -

TBD -

1/16-finals

TBD -

1/8-finals

TBD -

Quarter-finals

TBD -

Semi-finals

TBD -

Final

TBD -

Maastricht vs Excelsior

Netherlands

Maastricht

Excelsior

AI Match Summary

Win Probability Meter

Model Confidence

Goal Probability Engine

Recent Team Form Analysis

H2H

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Attack & Defence Capability Index

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Scoring Trends

Recent Form & Match History

Maastricht

Excelsior

Tournament Bracket & Draw

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