Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Maastricht vs Roda

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie De Geusselt, Maastricht
Our Tip

Match Events

15' Event
Dumont O.
Assist: Klaasen R.
46'
Sub
Deom J. In: Seedorf C.
Out: Deom J.
46'
Sub
Peixoto G. In: Sleegers J.
Out: Peixoto G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Eerste Divisie matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Maastricht
35%
Draws
45%
Roda
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Roda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Roda have won more games recently than Maastricht.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Maastricht Clean Sheet 17%
Roda Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maastricht Roda
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 8 10
Draws 9 9
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.14 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.18
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 6, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Maastricht vs Roda
1:1
Feb 22, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Roda vs Maastricht
2:0
Nov 30, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Maastricht vs Roda
0:0
Feb 1, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Maastricht vs Roda
3:2
Sep 21, 2024 Eerste Divisie
Roda vs Maastricht
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maastricht Compare

Top Goalscorer Dumont O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Roda Compare

Top Goalscorer Sleegers J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maastricht 31 / 100
Roda 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maastricht Roda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Roda Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maastricht found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Roda let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Maastricht stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maastricht VS Roda
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maastricht

(Home)
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Maastricht
0 : 4
Almere City
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1
Roda
28 Aug
Jong AZ Alkmaar
1 : 2
Maastricht
25 Aug
Genk U23
6 : 0
Maastricht
Page 1 of 6

Roda

(Away)
18 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 0
Roda
12 Sept
Roda
1 : 0
Vitesse
06 Sept
Maastricht
1 : 1
Roda
28 Aug
Roda
2 : 2
NAC Breda
21 Aug
Dordrecht
0 : 1
Roda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 7 6 0 1 24:10 18
2 Almere City 7 5 1 1 16:4 16
3 Venlo 7 5 0 2 19:11 15
4 Waalwijk 7 3 4 0 18:9 13
5 Maastricht 7 4 1 2 10:15 13
6 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
7 Roda 7 3 3 1 7:5 12
8 FC Emmen 7 4 0 3 17:17 12
9 Jong PSV 8 3 3 2 13:13 12
10 Vitesse 6 3 1 2 10:8 10
11 Eindhoven FC 7 3 1 3 11:13 10
12 FC Volendam 7 3 0 4 17:14 9
13 Helmond Sport 7 2 2 3 13:12 8
14 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
15 NAC Breda 6 2 1 3 11:14 7
16 Den Bosch 7 2 1 4 12:16 7
17 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
18 TOP Oss 7 2 0 5 8:12 6
19 De Graafschap 6 1 1 4 7:18 4
20 Dordrecht 7 1 1 5 9:21 4
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)