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Macae vs AA Carapebus Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Sat, Oct 3, 2026
VS
09:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Macae host AA Carapebus in the Carioca B1. Little to choose between these two on current form. Macae have averaged 1.07 scored and 1.14 conceded recently, against AA Carapebus's 1.11 scored and 1.21 conceded. No recent head-to-head history to lean on here — form is the better guide. Model xG sits at 1.40 vs 0.71, favoring Macae. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
Macae
20%
Draws
16%
AA Carapebus
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Macae

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • Macae have managed 1.07 goals a game lately — AA Carapebus are scoring more at 1.11.
  • 64% — that's where the model lands on Macae taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65%
Macae Clean Sheet 20%
AA Carapebus Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macae AA Carapebus
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 9
Draws 6 6
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1.07 1.11
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 0.71
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macae 76 / 100
AA Carapebus 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macae AA Carapebus

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Macae Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macae scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

AA Carapebus let in goals in 64% of their last 28 matches.

AA Carapebus lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Macae has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Macae VS AA Carapebus
1.5 Goals Scored 0.29
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.29
88% Over 1.5 43%
50% Over 2.5 14%
25% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Macae

(Home)
26 Sept
Macae
0 : 0
Artsul
19 Sept
Campo Grande
2 : 1
Macae
12 Sept
Macae
2 : 0
Audax RJ
05 Sept
Goytacaz
1 : 0
Macae
23 Jun
Americano
2 : 1
Macae
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AA Carapebus

(Away)
25 Sept
AA Carapebus
0 : 1
Sao Cristovao
19 Sept
Artsul
0 : 0
AA Carapebus
11 Sept
AA Carapebus
1 : 4
Duque de Caxias
05 Sept
Campo Grande
1 : 0
AA Carapebus
08 Nov
AA Carapebus
0 : 2
Duque de Caxias
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Niteroiense 4 3 1 0 6:1 10
2 Duque de Caxias 4 3 0 1 8:3 9
3 Goncalense 4 2 2 0 6:3 8
4 Artsul 4 2 2 0 5:2 8
5 Campo Grande 4 2 1 1 6:5 7
6 Goytacaz 4 2 1 1 3:3 7
7 Sao Cristovao 4 1 2 1 3:3 5
8 Serrano FC 4 1 2 1 2:3 5
9 Macae 4 1 1 2 3:3 4
10 Nova Cidade 4 0 1 3 3:8 1
11 AA Carapebus 4 0 1 3 1:6 1
12 Audax RJ 4 0 0 4 2:8 0
Promotion - Carioca B1 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2027 (Main)