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Macara vs Barcelona SC

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Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Macara play Barcelona SC in the Liga Pro. It looks like a close match. Recently, Macara averaged 0.96 goals scored and 0.93 conceded. Barcelona SC averaged 1.03 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. In past meetings, Macara won 2, Barcelona SC won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 19, 2026 ended 3:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.88 for Macara and 1.06 for Barcelona SC. This points to a Macara double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Macara
25%
Draws
37%
Barcelona SC
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Macara picked up more points recently compared to Barcelona SC.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.06 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 64%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Over 3.5 Goals 20%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 39%
Macara Clean Sheet 22%
Barcelona SC Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 58%
Second Half Goal 61%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Barcelona SC
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 10 12
Draws 9 6
Losses 8 11
Goals Scored 0.96 1.03
Goals Conceded 0.93 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 0.50 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 19, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Barcelona SC
3:1
Aug 17, 2025 Liga Pro
Barcelona SC vs Macara
0:2
Apr 27, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Barcelona SC
0:1
Sep 15, 2024 Liga Pro
Barcelona SC vs Macara
2:1
Mar 30, 2024 Liga Pro
Macara vs Barcelona SC
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Posse F.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Tello M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.38
Avg xA / game 0.25

Barcelona SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Benedetto D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 39 / 100
Barcelona SC 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Barcelona SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Macara or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +21.4%
3.57
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Macara attacking → ← attacking Barcelona SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Macara scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Barcelona SC let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Macara went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Barcelona SC lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 42
0.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.25

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Independiente del Valle17131336:1840
2Barcelona SC1785420:1329
3Aucas1785420:1629
4LDU Quito1783619:1427
5Dep. Cuenca1783618:1927
6U. Catolica1875628:1826
7Tecnico U.1772819:1723
8Leones del Norte1865719:1923
9Macara1765616:1823
10Emelec1765614:1723
11Orense1764722:2422
12Mushuc Runa1756622:2321
13Guayaquil City1754814:2019
14Delfin174589:1617
15Libertad1745817:2517
16Manta1733117:2312