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Macara vs Emelec

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Our Tip

Match Events

37'
Griffith V.
46'
Sub
Griffith V. In: Cevallos J.
Out: Griffith V.
46'
Sub
Napoli G. In: Saya R.
Out: Napoli G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Macara and Emelec finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Macara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Macara
15%
Draws
31%
Emelec
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Macara

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Emelec haven't matched Macara's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Pro form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Macara Clean Sheet 68%
Emelec Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Emelec
Matches Played 34 30
Wins 15 10
Draws 8 8
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.26 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.12 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Emelec
1:0
May 24, 2026 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Macara
2:0
Dec 9, 2025 Liga Pro
Emelec vs Macara
0:2
Nov 2, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Emelec
3:0
Jun 29, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Emelec
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Campana A. I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.82
Avg xA / game 0.53

Emelec Compare

Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.52

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 41 / 100
Emelec 31 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Emelec

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Macara Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Macara scored in 74% of their last 34 outings.

Emelec has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Solid form: Macara remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Macara VS Emelec
1.13 Goals Scored 0.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Macara

(Home)
19 Sept
Aucas
1 : 2
Macara
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
Page 1 of 7

Emelec

(Away)
20 Sept
Emelec
1 : 2
Libertad
13 Sept
Macara
1 : 0
Emelec
08 Sept
Emelec
1 : 0
Manta
04 Sept
Libertad
1 : 1
Emelec
30 Aug
Emelec
2 : 1
Leones del Norte
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 30 24 2 4 73:33 74
2 U. Catolica 30 14 9 7 51:27 51
3 Macara 30 15 6 9 41:33 51
4 Aucas 30 14 8 8 33:28 50
5 LDU Quito 30 13 7 10 31:24 46
6 Barcelona SC 30 11 11 8 32:25 44
7 Libertad 30 11 8 11 33:34 41
8 Leones del Norte 30 10 9 11 31:32 39
9 Guayaquil City 30 10 9 11 33:36 39
10 Emelec 30 10 9 11 25:34 39
11 Mushuc Runa 30 9 11 10 35:38 38
12 Dep. Cuenca 30 10 6 14 25:37 36
13 Orense 30 9 6 15 36:47 33
14 Tecnico U. 30 10 2 18 28:42 32
15 Delfin 30 7 7 16 19:31 28
16 Manta 30 5 6 19 17:42 21
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)