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Macara vs Independiente del Valle

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista
Our Tip

Match Events

29'
Marrufo J.
43'
Viacava J.
45' Event
Briones R.
Assist: Viacava J.

AI Match Summary

Independiente del Valle in this Liga Pro matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Independiente del Valle.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Macara
33%
Draws
40%
Independiente del Valle
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Independiente del Valle

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / Medium Confidence
  • Independiente del Valle have won more games recently than Macara.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Independiente del Valle taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Independiente del Valle have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Macara Clean Sheet 14%
Independiente del Valle Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Independiente del Valle
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 12 20
Draws 9 3
Losses 7 5
Goals Scored 1 2.5
Goals Conceded 0.75 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 2.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 16, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Independiente del Valle
0:3
Jul 12, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Independiente del Valle
1:2
Mar 16, 2025 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
1:1
Nov 24, 2024 Liga Pro
Independiente del Valle vs Macara
7:0
May 26, 2024 Liga Pro
Macara vs Independiente del Valle
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macara Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Independiente del Valle Compare

Top Goalscorer Briones R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Guagua D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.27
Avg xA / game 1.39

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 27 / 100
Independiente del Valle 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Independiente del Valle

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick IND Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.20 goals when they meet.

Macara scored in 71% of their last 28 games.

Independiente del Valle's defensive record shows goals conceded in 61% of 28 matches.

Macara has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Macara VS Independiente del Valle
1 Goals Scored 2.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.75
63% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Independiente del Valle19151343:1946
2Barcelona SC2097422:1434
3U. Catolica2095631:1832
4Aucas1995521:1932
5Macara2085721:2129
6LDU Quito2084819:1628
7Dep. Cuenca2084819:2328
8Leones del Norte2076721:2027
9Emelec1976616:1727
10Tecnico U.19721019:2023
11Orense1965822:2623
12Guayaquil City1965817:2223
13Delfin2065913:1923
14Mushuc Runa1956824:2921
15Libertad2056918:2621
16Manta1934127:2413