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Macara vs Mushuc Runa

Ecuador Ecuador

Liga Pro Estadio Bellavista, Ambato
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Minda T.
Assist: Carrillo R.
16' Event
Tello M.
Assist: Miranda M.
40'
Ayala M.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Pro game between Macara and Mushuc Runa finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Macara.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Macara
35%
Draws
32%
Mushuc Runa
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Macara carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Macara Clean Sheet 20%
Mushuc Runa Clean Sheet 18%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macara Mushuc Runa
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 14 9
Draws 7 10
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.37 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 14, 2026 Liga Pro
Macara vs Mushuc Runa
2:1
Mar 15, 2026 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Macara
0:0
Aug 23, 2025 Liga Pro
Macara vs Mushuc Runa
2:1
May 4, 2025 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Macara
4:3
Nov 3, 2024 Liga Pro
Mushuc Runa vs Macara
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macara Compare

Top Goalscorer Tello M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Posse F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Mushuc Runa Compare

Top Goalscorer Minda T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macara 32 / 100
Mushuc Runa 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macara Mushuc Runa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Macara scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Mushuc Runa let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Macara has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Macara VS Mushuc Runa
1.13 Goals Scored 0.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Macara

(Home)
05 Sept
Independiente del Valle
3 : 1
Macara
02 Sept
Macara
4 : 3
Manta
30 Aug
Orense
1 : 2
Macara
25 Aug
Libertad
1 : 0
Macara
20 Aug
Macara
0 : 0
Santos
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Mushuc Runa

(Away)
08 Sept
Mushuc Runa
1 : 1
Leones del Norte
02 Sept
LDU Quito
0 : 0
Mushuc Runa
28 Aug
Mushuc Runa
1 : 0
Delfin
22 Aug
Dep. Cuenca
0 : 0
Mushuc Runa
16 Aug
Mushuc Runa
0 : 0
Barcelona SC
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Independiente del Valle 29 23 2 4 70:31 71
2 Aucas 29 14 7 8 33:28 49
3 U. Catolica 29 13 9 7 49:26 48
4 Macara 29 14 6 9 40:33 48
5 LDU Quito 29 13 6 10 30:23 45
6 Barcelona SC 29 11 10 8 31:24 43
7 Libertad 29 11 8 10 31:31 41
8 Leones del Norte 29 10 9 10 31:31 39
9 Emelec 29 10 9 10 25:33 39
10 Mushuc Runa 29 9 11 9 34:35 38
11 Guayaquil City 29 9 9 11 30:35 36
12 Dep. Cuenca 29 10 5 14 24:36 35
13 Orense 29 9 6 14 35:45 33
14 Tecnico U. 29 9 2 18 27:42 29
15 Delfin 29 7 6 16 18:30 27
16 Manta 29 5 5 19 17:42 20
Promotion - Liga Pro (Championship Group)
Promotion - Liga Pro (Placement Group)
Relegation - Liga Pro (Relegation Group)