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Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix

Australia Australia

A-League 2025/2026 Campbelltown Stadium
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Match Events

6' Event
Jurman M.
22' Event
Bosnjak D.
34' Event
Brattan L.

AI Match Summary

Macarthur FC in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Macarthur FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Macarthur FC
28%
Draws
22%
Wellington Phoenix
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Macarthur FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Wellington Phoenix lately — more wins on the board than Macarthur FC.
  • Model gives Macarthur FC a 50% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Macarthur FC Clean Sheet 12%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Macarthur FC Wellington Phoenix
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 8 6
Losses 10 12
Goals Scored 1.25 1
Goals Conceded 2.5 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.50 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 24, 2026 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix
4:0
Nov 22, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
0:1
Jan 20, 2025 A-League
Macarthur FC vs Wellington Phoenix
1:2
Dec 14, 2024 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
1:2
Apr 27, 2024 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Macarthur FC
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Macarthur FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Jurman M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bosnjak D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Wellington Phoenix Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Macarthur FC 47 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Macarthur FC Wellington Phoenix

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MAC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Attacking prowess: Macarthur FC scored in 76% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.

Macarthur FC has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Macarthur FC VS Wellington Phoenix
1.25 Goals Scored 1
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 38%
75% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Newcastle Jets26153855:3948
2Adelaide Utd26127746:3643
3Auckland FC26119642:2942
4Melbourne Victory26117844:3340
5Sydney FC26116933:2539
6Melbourne City26108833:3338
7Macarthur FC26971037:4434
8Wellington Phoenix26961136:4833
9Central Coast26881035:4232
10Perth Glory26871132:3931
11Brisbane Roar26681227:3626
12Western Sydney Wanderers26561527:4321