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Maceratese vs Ancona Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

23' Event
Pesaresi L.
Own Goal
80'
Scarfo A.
80'
Simonelli M.

AI Match Summary

Ancona in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ancona.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Maceratese
30%
Draws
47%
Ancona
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Ancona

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Ancona lately — more wins on the board than Maceratese.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Ancona taking it.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Ancona have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 20%
Ancona Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maceratese Ancona
Matches Played 29 32
Wins 9 18
Draws 5 8
Losses 15 6
Goals Scored 1.17 1.53
Goals Conceded 1.31 0.84
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Ancona
0:1
Mar 1, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Ancona vs Maceratese
4:0
Oct 26, 2025 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Ancona
1:5
Jan 29, 2017 Serie C - Group B
Ancona vs Maceratese
0:1
Nov 22, 2016 Coppa Italia Serie C
Ancona vs Maceratese
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maceratese 28 / 100
Ancona 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maceratese Ancona

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ancona Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Maceratese found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Ancona let in goals in 63% of their last 32 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Maceratese stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maceratese VS Ancona
0.63 Goals Scored 1.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maceratese

(Home)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3
Teramo
Page 1 of 6

Ancona

(Away)
27 Sept
Angelana
1 : 1
Ancona
20 Sept
Ancona
2 : 2
Aquila Calcio
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
12 Sept
Ancona
0 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
06 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 2
Ancona
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)