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Maceratese vs Montecchio Gallo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Sun, Oct 25, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Maceratese host Montecchio Gallo in the Serie D - Group F. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Maceratese have averaged 1.17 scored and 1.55 conceded recently, against Montecchio Gallo's 1.13 scored and 1.13 conceded. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (0.88 - 1.31) back Montecchio Gallo to edge this. The prediction model leans Draw; both defenses could hold firm.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Maceratese
30%
Draws
29%
Montecchio Gallo
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Maceratese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

30% / Low Confidence
  • Montecchio Gallo haven't matched Maceratese's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Maceratese a 36% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 18%
Montecchio Gallo Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maceratese Montecchio Gallo
Matches Played 29 8
Wins 8 3
Draws 5 2
Losses 16 3
Goals Scored 1.17 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.55 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maceratese 36 / 100
Montecchio Gallo 34 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maceratese Montecchio Gallo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Montecchio Gallo has conceded goals in 75% of their last 8 outings.

Recent resilience: Maceratese stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Maceratese found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (29 games).

Montecchio Gallo lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maceratese VS Montecchio Gallo
0.63 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Maceratese

(Home)
18 Oct
Notaresco Calcio
5 : 2
Maceratese
11 Oct
Maceratese
0 : 2
Foligno
04 Oct
Recanatese
2 : 3
Maceratese
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
Page 1 of 6

Montecchio Gallo

(Away)
18 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
3 : 1
Angelana
11 Oct
Lanciano FC
3 : 1
Montecchio Gallo
04 Oct
Montecchio Gallo
0 : 1
Notaresco Calcio
27 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 1
Foligno
20 Sept
Recanatese
0 : 0
Montecchio Gallo
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Aquila Calcio 8 6 2 0 17:5 20
2 Teramo 8 6 1 1 20:11 19
3 Vigor Senigallia 8 5 1 2 17:12 16
4 Foligno 8 5 1 2 9:7 16
5 Notaresco Calcio 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
6 Ancona 8 4 2 2 12:8 14
7 Atletico Ascoli 8 4 1 3 13:10 13
8 Fossombrone 8 4 1 3 10:13 13
9 Montecchio Gallo 8 3 2 3 9:9 11
10 Giulianova 8 3 1 4 11:11 10
11 Lanciano FC 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
12 Termoli 8 3 1 4 6:7 10
13 Santegidiese 8 2 2 4 7:11 8
14 Pietralunga 8 2 2 4 5:9 8
15 Maceratese 8 2 1 5 9:16 7
16 Recanatese 8 1 3 4 11:14 6
17 Angelana 8 1 1 6 5:12 4
18 Sporting Trestina 8 1 1 6 4:13 4
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)