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Maceratese vs Santegidiese Prediction & H2H Stats

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group F
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Azizi B.
56' Event
Ruani E.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Serie D - Group F matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Maceratese
30%
Draws
47%
Santegidiese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Santegidiese

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Santegidiese haven't matched Maceratese's recent run of results.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group F form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Maceratese Clean Sheet 19%
Santegidiese Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Maceratese Santegidiese
Matches Played 29 6
Wins 9 2
Draws 5 2
Losses 15 2
Goals Scored 1.21 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.67
Expected Goals (xG) 0.83 1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2026 Serie D - Group F
Maceratese vs Santegidiese
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Maceratese Compare

Top Goalscorer Ruani E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.64
Avg xA / game 0.41

Santegidiese Compare

Top Goalscorer Azizi B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.17
Avg xA / game 0.72

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Maceratese 32 / 100
Santegidiese 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Maceratese Santegidiese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Santegidiese Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Santegidiese conceded in 83% of 6 recent games.

Maceratese scored in 62% of their last 29 games.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Maceratese went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Maceratese VS Santegidiese
1 Goals Scored 0.83
1.75 Goals Conceded 0.67
88% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 17%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Maceratese

(Home)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Pietralunga
0 : 2
Maceratese
16 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 1
Ancona
13 Sept
Atletico Ascoli
2 : 1
Maceratese
06 Sept
Maceratese
0 : 3
Teramo
Page 1 of 6

Santegidiese

(Away)
27 Sept
Maceratese
1 : 1
Santegidiese
20 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 0
Angelana
16 Sept
Notaresco Calcio
1 : 0
Santegidiese
12 Sept
Santegidiese
1 : 1
Recanatese
06 Sept
Montecchio Gallo
1 : 2
Santegidiese
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vigor Senigallia 5 4 1 0 10:4 13
2 Aquila Calcio 5 3 2 0 9:2 11
3 Teramo 5 3 1 1 11:7 10
4 Foligno 5 3 1 1 6:6 10
5 Ancona 5 2 2 1 6:5 8
6 Santegidiese 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
7 Montecchio Gallo 5 2 2 1 5:4 8
8 Lanciano FC 5 2 1 2 10:7 7
9 Atletico Ascoli 5 2 1 2 6:7 7
10 Fossombrone 5 2 1 2 5:9 7
11 Recanatese 5 1 3 1 6:6 6
12 Notaresco Calcio 5 1 2 2 5:6 5
13 Giulianova 5 1 1 3 7:8 4
14 Maceratese 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
15 Sporting Trestina 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
16 Angelana 5 1 1 3 4:7 4
17 Termoli 5 1 1 3 2:5 4
18 Pietralunga 5 0 2 3 2:6 2
Promotion - Serie D - Group F (Play Offs)